426
FXUS61 KOKX 191412
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1012 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXTENDED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS UNTIL NOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND FALL INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY.
2) COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES LIKELY OUTSIDE THE URBAN NYC METRO MONDAY NIGHT.
3) MILDER WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE EAST, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING, ADDITIONAL RAIN
DEVELOPS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPIDLY FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH
COMES IN AND AN INCOMING 120 KT UPPER JET. THE RAIN TAPERS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT, ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS FOR
MOST, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH OFF TO THE NORTH
AND WEST INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY. WHILE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WITH THE FROPA LATE THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
CLIMB ANY HIGHER THAN WHERE THEY STARTED THE DAY, AND MORE LIKELY,
FALL SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN ON THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA.
CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
30S FOR MOST, AND LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NYC METRO. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY AM AS A SECONDARY FRONT
APPROACHES, AND COULD HELP SPUR A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY AND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS SOME HI-RES CAMS ARE DEPICTING. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO
PLENTY OF STRATOCU MONDAY, AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WET FLAKES
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. THE BULK OF THE DAY REMAINS DRY THOUGH,
AND MUCH DRIER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO EFFICIENTLY COOL
THE BL. OPTED TO BLEND IN A BIT COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVEN
THIS SETUP, AND A WIDESPREAD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST
OUTSIDE NYC. FREEZE WATCH HOISTED FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN
METRO. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO MID
30S IN THE CITY, OR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RECORD
DAILY LOWS ARE EVEN IN REACH FOR A FEW SITES, SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAIL.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP A WEAK RETURN FLOW AND A MILDER
NIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS IT DOES INTO WED
AM, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS SCATTERED AT BEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
FOLLOWS LATER WEDNESDAY, BUT DESPITE THE FROPA, TEMPERATURES
NUDGE UPWARDS INTO LATE WEEK WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THURSDAY LIKELY THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST; FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT FOLLOWS LAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO MVFR AND VISIBILITIES LIKELY BECOMING MVFR/VFR. IT
WILL TAKE LONGEST FOR IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CT TERMINALS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, ENDING 20-22Z. VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR, POSSIBLE MIXED WITH WET
SNOW WELL NW OF NYC TERMINALS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL AT KJFK, KLGA, KEWR, KTEB,
AND KSWF (30-HOUR TAF SITES).
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT, BECOMING AROUND 15 KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND GUSTS
SHOULD START WEAKENING AFTER 19Z, ENDING AROUND 00Z. WNW-NW
WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT, THEN BACK TO THE SW EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE 15-17Z.
END TIME OF WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE,
SNOW SHOWERS AT KSWF WITH MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR. NW WINDS G20KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
AREAS OF FOG AROUND THIS MORNING, LIKELY UNDER 1 NM GIVEN REPORTED
SURFACE OBS ALONG THE COAST. DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXTENDED FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS UNTIL NOON. VSBYS IMPROVE THEREAFTER.
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING, WITH INCREASING
NW FLOW BEHIND IT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SCA WIND GUSTS (25 TO 30
KT) ON THE NEAR SHORE OCEAN WATERS, LI SOUND, LI BAYS, AND NY
HARBOR FOR THE AFTERNOON. NEARSHORE OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD
TO AROUND 4 OR 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, AND
CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
TUE, APRIL 21
KEWR: 31/1981
KBDR: 29/1956
KNYC: 26/1875
KLGA: 33/1956
KJFK: 34/1956
KISP: 30/1965
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ067>071-078>081-177-179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NJZ002-004-103>108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-
355.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DS/MET
MARINE...DR
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