991
FXUS61 KOKX 191722
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
122 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN SHOWERS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
2) COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES LIKELY OUTSIDE THE URBAN NYC METRO MONDAY NIGHT.
3) MILDER WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE EAST. ADDITIONAL RAIN
DEVELOPS SUPPORTED BY THE RAPIDLY FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE TROUGH
COMES IN AND AN INCOMING 120 KT UPPER JET. THE RAIN TAPERS FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT, ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS FOR
MOST, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH OFF TO THE NORTH
AND WEST INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY. WHILE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE WITH NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ANY HIGHER THAN WHERE THEY
STARTED THE DAY, AND MORE LIKELY, FALL SEVERAL DEGREES INTO THE
40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN ON THE NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FROPA.
CAA CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
30S FOR MOST, AND LOW TO MID 40S IN THE NYC METRO. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS EARLY MONDAY AM AS A SECONDARY FRONT
APPROACHES, AND COULD HELP SPUR A FEW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY AND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AFTER
DAYBREAK MONDAY AS SOME HI-RES CAMS ARE DEPICTING. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO
PLENTY OF STRATOCU MONDAY, AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME WET FLAKES
ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. THE BULK OF THE DAY REMAINS DRY THOUGH,
AND MUCH DRIER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO EFFICIENTLY COOL
THE BL. OPTED TO BLEND IN A BIT COOLER MAV/MET GUIDANCE GIVEN
THIS SETUP, AND A WIDESPREAD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY FOR MOST
OUTSIDE NYC. FREEZE WATCH HOISTED FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE URBAN
METRO. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO MID
30S IN THE CITY, OR ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. RECORD
DAILY LOWS ARE EVEN IN REACH FOR A FEW SITES, SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAIL.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP A WEAK RETURN FLOW AND A MILDER
NIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION. CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS IT DOES INTO WED
AM, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS SCATTERED AT BEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
FOLLOWS LATER WEDNESDAY, BUT DESPITE THE FROPA, TEMPERATURES
NUDGE UPWARDS INTO LATE WEEK WITH DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THURSDAY LIKELY THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
BUILDING FROM THE WEST; FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWS LAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY MVFR WITH SHOWERS TO START, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST. SHOWERS END 20-22Z WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES
GRADUALLY PREVAILING VFR. VFR PREVAILS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR, POSSIBLE MIXED WITH WET
SNOW WELL NW OF NYC TERMINALS MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD START WEAKENING AFTER 19Z, ENDING AROUND
00Z. WNW-NW WINDS FALL BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT, THEN BACK TO THE SW
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF IMPROVING FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 20Z AND END TIME OF
WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
START TIME OF GUSTS MONDAY MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
INCREASING NW WIND GUSTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE SCA WIND GUSTS (25 TO 30 KT) ON THE NEAR SHORE
OCEAN WATERS, LI SOUND, LI BAYS, AND NY HARBOR FOR THE
AFTERNOON. NEARSHORE OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AROUND 4 OR
5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING, AND CONDITIONS THEN
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
TUE, APRIL 21
KEWR: 31/1981
KBDR: 29/1956
KNYC: 26/1875
KLGA: 33/1956
KJFK: 34/1956
KISP: 30/1965
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NYZ067>071-078>081-177-179.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR NJZ002-004-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
335-345-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ332-
338-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR
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