396
FXUS61 KOKX 200541
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
141 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE FREEZE WATCH UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN, WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INLAND TONIGHT AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE NYC AND SOME IMMEDIATE SUBURBS TO THE
WEST/EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
2) MILDER WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A POTENTIAL
COOLDOWN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR COASTAL CT AND OUTLYING NY/NJ
SUBURBS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON AM AS TEMPS THERE FALL
TO THE MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME SUB- FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY
IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS, BUT DID NOT ISSUE FREEZE WARNINGS THERE
AS THE GROWING SEASON THERE STARTS ON MONDAY.
A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MON WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SOME WET SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN WELL NW OF NYC IN THE
MORNING. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, WITH HIGHS ONLY FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEAR LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO
EFFICIENTLY COOL THE BL. SIDED WITH COLDER OF NBM AND GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE, WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER MOST
OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND, NYC AND SOME
AREAS JUST OUTSIDE. UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR
MOST OF THOSE AREAS, BUT KEPT THE WATCH GOING FOR NASSAU COUNTY
AS TEMPS THERE MAY REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING. RECORD DAILY
LOW TEMPS ARE EVEN IN REACH FOR A FEW STATIONS: SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
50-55. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT,
SETTING UP A WEAK RETURN FLOW AND A MILDER NIGHT COMPARED TO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA,
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ALOFT MID WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMUP
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES A BIT
MORE CHALLENGING AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS JET ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
CARVES OUT AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS THEN
SETS UP A BLOCK OF THE INCOMING RIDGE, WEAKENING IT, AND
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO DROP SW ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, THE LATTER OF WHICH
COULD SERVE AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC WITH ANY DETAILS, BUT A
COOLER WEEKEND WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE ADVERTISED AT
THIS TIME. NBM SPREAD IN THE BOX AND WHISKER PLOTS IS CLEARLY
SHOWING AN INCREASING SPREAD HEADING TOWARD FRIDAY AND NEXT
WEEKEND. THIS IS LIKELY DO TO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME, USING THE NBM DETERMINISTIC FORECAST, HIGHS
THURSDAY GET INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST, AND 65-70 FROM NYC
AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. THIS IS LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL DOWN FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY VFR THRU TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW
NW OF THE NYC TERMINALS.
LIGHT WNW-NW FLOW BACKS TO THE SW EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME
NW AGAIN BY 15Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FLOW LIGHTENS AS IT GRADUALLY VEERS
NNW INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PROB30 TIMING MONDAY MORNING MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NNW WINDS UNDER 10 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES BLW SCA LVLS THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUE APR 21:
KEWR: 31/1981
KBDR: 29/1956
KNYC: 26/1875
KLGA: 33/1956
KJFK: 34/1956
KISP: 30/1965
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ067>071-078>081.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-
078>081.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ177-179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-103>108.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-
104.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...
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