700
FXUS61 KOKX 200845
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 AM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NASSAU TONIGHT HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLDER AIR MASS SETTLES IN, WITH NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST, AND
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE NYC AND
THE NEARBY SUBURBS TONIGHT.
2) MILDER WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK, BEFORE TURNING MORE
UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 800 AM EDT FOR
COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND THE OUTLYING NY/NJ SUBURBS WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WILL BE NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING BY EARLY THIS MORNING,
HOWEVER THE GROWING SEASON STARTS TUESDAY, APRIL 21.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION, WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY.
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
WITH CLEARING SKIES, AND WINDS BECOMING NEAR CALM. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE SUB FREEZING AND A FREEZE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES AREAS OF FROST WILL BE LIKELY. THE FREEZE WATCH FOR
NASSAU COUNTY WAS CANCELLED AS TEMPERATURES THERE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT. RECORD DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE APPROACHED OR MAY BE SET FOR A FEW CLIMATE STATIONS
TUESDAY MORNING. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY, AND
THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE COAST WITH A RETURN FLOW. IN ADDITION WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETS UP AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT,
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO, A WEAK LOW WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COOLER REGIME IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
OFFSHORE AND RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY JUMP 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY FOR MOST, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S,
THOUGH REMAINING A BIT COOLER ACROSS SE CT. THURSDAY IS LIKELY
THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK, DOWNSLOPING OFF NW FLOW HELPING
TEMPS GET INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FROM NYC AND POINTS
NORTH AND WEST, WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL DOWN LATE WEEK, THOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
STILL A BIT EARLY FOR THE FINE DETAILS, BUT PATTERN APPEARS TO
TURN MORE UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND. DECREASING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD WITH DIVERGING SOLUTIONS IN GUIDANCE.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO DROP DOWN ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE, HELPING CARVE OUT AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THIS SHOULD BLOCK FURTHER ADVANCEMENT OF THE RIDGE
AND HELP BREAK IT DOWN, WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY
SERVING AS FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AT TIMES. PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THESE FEATURES, AS WELL AS ANY FRONTAL WAVES, WILL DETERMINE
EXACT IMPACTS AND EXTENT OF UNSETTLEDNESS, BUT DOESN'T APPEAR TO
BE A WASHOUT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A BIT COOLER
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
MAINLY VFR THRU TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SHOWERS MIX WITH SNOW NW OF
THE NYC TERMINALS, MAINLY KSWF.
A LIGHT VARIABLE OR SW FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BECOME NW
AGAIN BY 15Z FOR MOST TERMINALS, AND SPEEDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
AOA 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. GUSTS DIMINISH AND
FLOW LIGHTENS AS IT GRADUALLY VEERS NNW LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AM.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PROB30 TIMING FOR SHOWERS MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. NNW WINDS UNDER 10 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUE APR 21:
KEWR: 31/1981
KBDR: 29/1956
KNYC: 26/1875
KLGA: 33/1956
KJFK: 34/1956
KISP: 30/1965
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ067>071-078>081.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ069>071-
078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-103>108.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-103-
104.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR/MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...DR/MET
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