725
FXUS61 KOKX 202243
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
643 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUE MORNING FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF NYC AND IMMEDIATE
EASTERN/WESTERN SUBURBS.
2) MILDER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.
3) CONDITIONS LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN TONIGHT. KEPT FREEZE WARNING AS
IS, WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
PER MOS, EVEN A LITTLE LOWER WELL INLAND WHERE NW WINDS SHOULD
DECOUPLE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATE. CLOSER TO THE COAST,
WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE, SO STAYED MOSTLY WITH MOS TEMPS
WHICH WERE STILL COLDER THAN NBM, WITH LOWS IN NYC, HUDSON NJ
AND NASSAU NY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS AT NEWARK, JFK,
AND ISLIP SHOULD GET TO WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR TUE: SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE RECORD
LOWS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
TEMPS RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST, WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP.
WAA SETS WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT, BRINGING THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MAINLY NW OF NYC LATE TUE NIGHT, AND THROUGHOUT ON
WED MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL AT
LEAST FROM NYC NORTH/WEST BUT WILL STILL 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL EAST OF THERE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST, AND LOWER/MID 60S EAST.
TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL DOWN LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL A FEATURE A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE AREA, SANDWICHED
BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME, A
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWING WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WESTERN SYSTEM THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN A STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE AREA. THIS WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING THE COVERAGE
AND EXTENT OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
RIDGE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP EASTERN AREAS, IN
PARTICULAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT ON THE DRIER
SIDE, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF RAIN BACK TOWARD NYC AND
NORTHERN NJ. THAT BEING THE CASE THERE ARE STILL SOLUTIONS LIKE
THE 00Z ECMWF, WHICH ARE WET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
EITHER WAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT
SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE AREA, GOING FROM RAIN TO NO RAIN. USING
THE NBM, THIS RESULTS IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
EVERYWHERE SATURDAY, BUT DECREASING ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL WAVE
AND BOUNDARY GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE.
HIGHS DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL, MAINLY
IN THE 50S, WITH NEAR NORMAL LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A FEW REMAINING SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR
BRIEF MVFR POTENTIAL WITH RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS.
WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE NW WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10-15 KT. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED, MAINLY NEAR 20-25 KT WITH SOME OCCASIONAL PEAKS
TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS DECREASING TO NEAR 5-10 KT. THE WINDS FURTHER DECREASE
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BECOMING VARIABLE DIRECTION FOR
SOME TERMINALS WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE 5 KTS OR LESS. A MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION OCCURS LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PEAK GUSTS NEAR 30 KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 23Z.
LOW PROBABILITY OF A QUICK RAIN SHOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SOME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT
LATE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, IMPROVING LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT WITH VFR
RETURNING. SOME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT EARLY.
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER LATE AT NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WIND GUSTS IN NW FLOW AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY APPROACH
25 KT AT TIMES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ON NY HARBOR AND ON THE
ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS NEAR THE HARBOR ENTRANCE. DECLINED ISSUING
SCA FOR THIS SINCE ANY 25-KT GUSTS SHOULD BE SPORADIC.
OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUE APR 21:
KEWR: 31/1981
KBDR: 29/1956
KNYC: 26/1875
KLGA: 33/1956
KJFK: 34/1956
KISP: 30/1965
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ067>071-078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
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