796
FXUS61 KOKX 210716
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
316 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INTO EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF NYC AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN/WESTERN
SUBURBS.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH MILDER WEATHER RETURNING MID TO LATE WEEK.
3) CONDITIONS LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD AIRMASS WAS ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
EARLY THIS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
INLAND, AND TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL TO BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
A COUPLE OF RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR THE RECORD LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND
BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND
TODAY WILL BE DRY. WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
CAMS AND NAM ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, SO INCREASED
PROBABILITIES TO LIKELY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING
NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS LIKELY THE
MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
FROM NYC NORTH/WEST, AND LOWER/MID 60S EAST AS WEAK UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL A FEATURE A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE AREA, SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERN SYSTEM THEN MOVES NEARBY ON SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BE A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF RAIN
THIS WEEKEND.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE
SURFACE RIDGE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP EASTERN AREAS, IN
PARTICULAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT ON THE DRIER
SIDE, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF RAIN BACK TOWARD NYC AND
NORTHERN NJ. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED JUST A BIT DRIER FOR
THE AREA, BUT STILL ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. EITHER WAY, IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE
AREA, GOING FROM RAIN TO NO RAIN. ALSO, THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AND
COASTAL AREAS. USING THE NBM, THIS RESULTS IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE SATURDAY AND LIKELY POPS FOR
NYC NORTH AND WEST, BUT DECREASING ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL WAVE
AND BOUNDARY GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR. CHANCE FOR -SHRA TO BRING MVFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR
30 HOUR TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING
VARIABLE FOR SOME TERMINALS WHERE WIND SPEEDS ARE 5 KTS OR LESS.
A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION DEVELOPS LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS,
CONTINUING TONIGHT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN ABOUT 12Z TO 17Z AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THIS
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TONIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z WITH -SHRA. OTHERWISE
VFR WITH S WINDS AROUND 10KT.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS, IMPROVING LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT WITH VFR
RETURNING. SOME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT EARLY.
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER LATE AT NIGHT WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY GUSTS WILL BE MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS, WEST OF MORICHES INLET, AND
LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. EAST OF MORICHES
INLET AND THE LONG ISLAND EASTERN BAYS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND MAY SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THERE. MIXING MAY BE BE
LIMITED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SHOWERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUE APR 21:
KEWR: 31/1981
KBDR: 29/1956
KNYC: 26/1875
KLGA: 33/1956
KJFK: 34/1956
KISP: 30/1965
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067>071-
078>081.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002-004-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ345-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...MET/JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...MET
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