392
FXUS61 KOKX 211509
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1109 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH MILDER WEATHER RETURNING MID TO LATE WEEK.
2) CONDITIONS LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT
THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY,
AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND
BE ACCOMPANIED WITH SHOWERS. THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND
TODAY WILL BE DRY. WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT
SHOWERS WILL BECOME LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
CAM'S AND NAM ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, SO
INCREASED PROBABILITIES TO LIKELY. WARM ADVECTION AND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST, AND LOWER/MID 60S EAST
AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST.
UPPER AIR PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL A FEATURE A
WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE AREA, SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WESTERN SYSTEM THEN MOVES NEARBY ON SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BE A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING THE COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF RAIN
THIS WEEKEND.
THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE
SURFACE RIDGE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP EASTERN AREAS, IN
PARTICULAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT ON THE DRIER
SIDE, WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF RAIN BACK TOWARD NYC AND
NORTHERN NJ. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED JUST A BIT DRIER FOR
THE AREA, BUT STILL ONE OF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS. EITHER WAY, IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE
AREA, GOING FROM RAIN TO NO RAIN. ALSO, THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AND
COASTAL AREAS. USING THE NBM, THIS RESULTS IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE SATURDAY AND LIKELY POPS FOR
NYC NORTH AND WEST, BUT DECREASING ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL WAVE
AND BOUNDARY GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TODAY, WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AS
EARLY AS 06Z TONIGHT. CIGS DROP TO MVFR AFTER 12Z WED FOR MOST,
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE MORNING.
WINDS ARE STARTING TO BECOME SE 5-10 KT CLOSER TO THE COAST, AND
ARE STILL LIGHT/VRB INLAND. A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON, WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO NEAR
10 KT, THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 20-25 KT GUSTS FOR SOME COASTAL TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WIND DIRECTION BEFORE ABOUT 17Z, ALSO WITH
DURATION OF LIGHT ENE FLOW AT KLGA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING: MVFR OR LOWER COND WITH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, IMPROVING LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT WITH VFR
RETURNING. S WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE EARLY.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING: VFR.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE
WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY GUSTS WILL BE MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS, WEST OF MORICHES INLET, AND
LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. EAST OF MORICHES
INLET AND THE LONG ISLAND EASTERN BAYS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND MAY SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THERE. MIXING MAY BE BE
LIMITED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SHOWERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ345-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...MET/JT
AVIATION...BG/JT
MARINE...MET/JT
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