758
FXUS61 KOKX 220555
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
155 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
WITH MILDER WEATHER RETURNING MID TO LATE WEEK.
2) CONDITIONS LOOK POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THERE
IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, AND
THEN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A WARM
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND BE
ACCOMPANIED WITH SHOWERS. WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE WARM FRONT,
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND STICK AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN SHALLOW MOISTURE, ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL BE
LIGHT AND SCATTERED, SO HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS.
WARM ADVECTION AND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES NEARING NORMAL LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS LIKELY THE MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST, AND LOWER/MID 60S
EAST AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE WEEKEND FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST. UPPER AIR
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL A FEATURE A WEAKENING UPPER
RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE AREA, SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, FOLLOWING WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN SYSTEM THEN MOVES NEARBY FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE AREA. THIS WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN DETERMINING THE
COVERAGE AND EXTENT OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
RIDGE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP EASTERN AREAS, IN PARTICULAR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT ON THE DRIER SIDE, WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN BACK TOWARD NYC AND NORTHERN NJ. THERE WILL BE
A TIGHT GRADIENT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE AREA, GOING FROM RAIN TO NO
RAIN. ALSO, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT IN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BOTH DAYS, ESPECIALLY
FOR EASTERN AND COASTAL AREAS. THIS RESULTS IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EVERYWHERE SATURDAY AND LIKELY POPS FOR NYC
NORTH AND WEST, BUT DECREASING ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL WAVE AND
BOUNDARY GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THIS MORNING AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MAINLY VFR TO START. SOME RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM ABOUT 09Z-13Z.
MVFR CONDITIONS BECOME LIKELY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WHERE CONDITIONS FALL TO IFR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
TO IMPROVE AFTER 05Z THURSDAY.
SE-S FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT EXPECTED. SOME TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST COULD SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT OR SO THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AND THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE E THEN NE AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION DUE TO
WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR AT THE NYC METROS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
MOST OF THE NIGHT NORTH/EAST OF THE NYC METROS.
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND IN
THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY SOUTHERLY GUSTS WILL BE MARGINALLY AT SCA LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS, WEST OF MORICHES INLET, AND
LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS BY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. EAST OF MORICHES
INLET AND THE LONG ISLAND EASTERN BAYS AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND MAY SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT BY MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND A SCA MAY BE NEEDED THERE. MIXING MAY BE BE
LIMITED TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH SHOWERS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ345-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BR
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