914
FXUS61 KOKX 221434
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1034 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
2) POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD THURSDAY.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER TO START THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY LIKELY BRINGING
ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THE SHOWERS OUT THERE
CURRENTLY HAVE BEEN FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NOT
MUCH HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. THERE ARE SEVERAL SITES WHO
HAVE REPORTED NO RAIN EVEN AFTER A FEW HOURS AND DECENT RETURNS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN SATURATING EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATEST CAMS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF
SHOWERS BEING MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
STUCK CLOSE TO NBM POPS.
THE COMBINATION OF A COOL ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S FOR EASTERN LI AND MUCH OF
SOUTHERN CT WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED RISK OF
FIRE SPREAD FOR THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP MIXING. TDS DROP TO THE
30S RESULTING IN MIN RH VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT. DEEP MIXING IN THE N
FLOW LOOKS TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER GUSTS.
THIS THREAT LOOKS HIGHEST FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS LIKE SOUTHERN CT
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WHERE THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLIER.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF
THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND BRINGING RAIN TO AT LEAST TO NYC NORTH AND
WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL GET, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT GRADIENT.
REGARDLESS, THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S
FOR MOST. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT EASTERN CT COULD GET INTO
THE UPPER 50S IF THE BULK OF PRECIP AND CLOUDS STAY FARTHER WEST.
THE LARGE SPREAD FOR THIS EVENT LIES WITH THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE
COULD SEE. THE LATEST NBM 24HR QPF 10TH PERCENTILE FOR NYC
SHOWS 0.00 INCHES WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE SHOWING AROUND 1
INCH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER A 18-24 HOUR PERIOD SO
FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT, WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG IT, NEARS
THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS THEN SAGS SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO TOMORROW.
RAIN SHOWERS TAPER LATE THIS MORNING, ENDING ALTOGETHER JUST
AFTER MIDDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
IN LOWER CEILINGS. MOST SITES IMPROVE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT, BUT SOME EASTERN TERMINALS (MAINLY KISP/KGON) MAY STAY
SOCKED IN WITH EVEN THE CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
DAYBREAK. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS AT KBDR AND KHPN,
BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS. ALL SITES ARE VFR AFTER
DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
SE-S FLOW AROUND 10-15 KT EXPECTED. SOME TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST, MAY CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT OR
SO THROUGH MIDDAY DAY TO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH AND THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE E THEN NE AS THE LOW
PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION DUE TO WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW
TRACKS, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, AROUND 5 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW 10-13 KT WITH GUSTS
19-23 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED QUICKER, LEAVING THE CITY
TERMINAL VFR LATE TONIGHT, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND IN
THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A LLJ TRANSLATES EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF 25 KT GUSTS TO THE WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MORICHES
INLET OUT 60 NM, THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS, AND HAVE JUST ADDED NY
HARBOR TO THE SCA AS WELL. THE WATERS FROM MORICHES INLET TO
MONTAUK OUT 60 NM MAY ALSO SEE 25 KT GUSTS, BUT THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE AND IT WILL LIKELY BE MORE OCCASIONAL.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ338-
345-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JE/JT
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JT
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