533
FXUS61 KOKX 221802
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
202 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER THURSDAY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN MOST INTERIOR SECTIONS.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WITH WINDS MORE OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE NW ON THURSDAY, LOOK FOR
WARMER TEMPERATURES. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL RESULT IN ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION AND SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES GETTING ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD DEGREE OF
MIXING BY EARLY AFTERNOON, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE W AND NW
INTERIOR WILL BE WARMEST COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. NW
WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 MPH, WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH
NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT UNTIL THE LATE THURSDAY MORNING THE WINDOW FOR FIRE SPREAD
CONDITIONS APPEARS RATHER TIGHT, WITH IT TAKING ANOTHER DAY OR SO TO
COMPLETELY DRY AND GET FUELS UP. THUS, AFTER COORDINATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND STATE PARTNER HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO GO
WITH A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. IT IS UNLIKELY TO
REACH THE AREA PER THE 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT THERE WILL BE WAA
ALOFT RESULTING IN MID LVL FROGEN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, THIS WILL HELP WITH VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP OMEGA INDICATED IN THE TIMEHEIGHTS
REFLECTING THIS. AS A RESULT, A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH POSSIBLY AN
EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW APPEARS SAT AFTN AND EVE
FOR THE BEST CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT, WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG IT, NEARS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IT THEN SAGS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO TOMORROW.
MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN LOWER CEILINGS,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW LONG IT MAY PERSIST. AT SOME SITES,
MVFR MAY END UP BEING OCCASIONAL OR BRIEF. MOST SITES IMPROVE THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT, BUT SOME EASTERN TERMINALS (MAINLY
KISP/KGON) MAY STAY SOCKED IN WITH EVEN THE CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL DAYBREAK. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS AT
KBDR AND KHPN, BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS. ALL SITES ARE
VFR AFTER DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
GUSTS ARE NOW DIMINISHING AND THE WINDS WILL SOON SHIFT TO THE E
THEN NE AS THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH WIND DIRECTION DUE
TO WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW TRACKS, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT,
AROUND 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW 10-
14 KT WITH GUSTS 19-23 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WHILE THIS SYSTEM HAS TRENDED QUICKER, LEAVING THE CITY TERMINALS
VFR LATE TONIGHT, THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND IN THE
AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OTHER THAN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL WATERS INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH, BRIEF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS COULD TAKE PLACE BRIEFLY FOR THE WESTERN NEAR SHORE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JMC/JE
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JMC/JE
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