670
FXUS61 KOKX 230538
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
138 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY THIS EVENING, AND SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
2) WARMER THURSDAY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FIRE SPREAD IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN MOST INTERIOR
SECTIONS.
3) A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. THE CAMS SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS, LIKELY UNDER
0.05 INCH OF ACCUMULATION. ALSO, ADDED IN SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT WHERE LOW LEVELS BECOME SATURATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WITH WINDS MORE OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE NW ON THURSDAY, LOOK
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL RESULT IN
ADIABATIC COMPRESSION AND SHOULD AID IN TEMPERATURES GETTING
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
GOOD DEGREE OF MIXING BY EARLY AFTERNOON, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW
HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE W AND NW INTERIOR WILL BE WARMEST COMPARED
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. NW WINDS SHOULD GUST TO 25 MPH,
WITH PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH WITH NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
DUE TO THE RECENT RAIN AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT UNTIL THE
LATE THURSDAY MORNING THE WINDOW FOR FIRE SPREAD CONDITIONS
APPEARS RATHER TIGHT, WITH IT TAKING ANOTHER DAY OR SO TO
COMPLETELY DRY AND GET FUELS UP. THUS, AFTER COORDINATING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES AND STATE PARTNER HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO GO WITH
A STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. IT IS UNLIKELY TO
REACH THE AREA PER THE 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT THERE WILL BE WAA
ALOFT RESULTING IN MID LVL FROGEN ACROSS THE REGION. WITH A
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, THIS WILL HELP WITH VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP OMEGA INDICATED IN THE TIMEHEIGHTS
REFLECTING THIS. AS A RESULT, A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH POSSIBLY AN
EMBEDDED ELEVATED TSTM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. TIMING IS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THE FOCUS RIGHT NOW APPEARS SAT AFTN AND EVE
FOR THE BEST CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AND REMAIN FROM THE N/NW AT
THE NYC TERMINALS. FOR THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF NYC, EXPECT WINDS TO
ALSO BE LIGHT, BUT HAVE MORE OF A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION. A NW FLOW
IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-
12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT. WINDS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS AND FOG
MAINLY FOR THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF CATEGORICAL
CHANGES TONIGHT COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT DIMINISH EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR LATE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OTHER THAN MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR THE FAR EASTERN OCEAN
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL WATERS INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH, BRIEF SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS COULD TAKE PLACE BRIEFLY FOR THE WESTERN NEAR SHORE
WATERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JMC/JE/JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JMC/JE
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