878
FXUS61 KOKX 230835
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE AND WIND GUST FORECAST HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY
FOR TODAY.
FORECAST POPS HAVE INCREASED FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM, DRY AND GUSTY TODAY WITH A LOCALIZED ELEVATED RISK OF
FIRE SPREAD TODAY.
2) WET AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR MANY ON SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW GREAT AGREEMENT ON DEEP MIXING UP TO
AROUND 800MB. HREF SOUNDINGS SAMPLED FROM SEVERAL LOCATIONS AROUND
THE AREA SHOW VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN PBL TOP WITH THE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE SPREAD ONLY ABOUT 20-30MB DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WARM, DRY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS.
FOR WIND GUSTS, WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE NBM90TH AND HRRR GIVEN THE
PROGGED DEEP MIXING. THIS GAVE WIDESPREAD 30 MPH GUSTS. THINKING
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLATED GUSTS COULD
BE EVEN HIGHER IF STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER CAN
MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. ALSO WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN THE NBM WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVEN DOWNSLOPING AND BEING MOSTLY PRE GREEN
UP. THE HRRR HAS HANDLED PRE GREEN UP NORTHWEST FLOW DAYS WELL
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF THAT AND THE NBM50TH RESULTING IN HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. LASTLY WENT BELOW NBM TDS
DUE TO KNOWN NBM HIGH BIAS AND DEEP MIXING.
WHILE MARGINAL, THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A LOCALIZED ELEVATED
RISK OF FIRE SPREAD TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. GUIDANCE IS A BIT WETTER AND
FARTHER EAST THAN 24 HOURS AGO. STUCK WITH NBM WHICH NOW
EXTENDS LIKELY POPS THROUGH ALL BUT EASTERN LI AND SOUTHEASTERN
CT. THERE STILL IS A LARGE AMOUNT IF SPREAD IN TOTAL QPF. LATEST
NBM 48 HOUR QPF 10TH PERCENTILE FOR NYC IS 0.10 INCHES WITH THE
90TH PERCENTILE AT 1.40 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN NOW SHOW MORE OF A POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO SLOW DOWN
AND LINGER OFFSHORE. THIS COULD BRING COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION NATURE, THERE
ARE STILL NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME..
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD. ANOTHER
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT FROM THE N/NW AT THE NYC
TERMINALS. FOR THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF NYC, EXPECT WINDS TO
ALSO BE LIGHT, BUT HAVE MORE OF A VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION. A NW
FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10- 12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT.
WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR TO IFR STRATUS AND FOG
MAINLY FOR THE TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF NYC.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE OF MVFR TO IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. TIMING OF CATEGORICAL
CHANGES TONIGHT COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT DIMINISH EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR LATE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AND A LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN FORECAST EASTERLY WIND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JT
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