556
FXUS61 KOKX 231945
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WET AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY.
2) CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS
MULTIPLE UPPER LOWS IMPINGE UPON IT. ONE WILL BE OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY, AND THE OTHER, OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF WESTERN CANADA. THIS
WILL WEAKEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, WITH A
COOLER DAY ON TAP (CLOSER TO NORMAL). AN ELONGATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL THEN WORK
EAST TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. DECENT FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING BETWEEN A FRONTAL WAVE AND THE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY. SOME RAIN COULD GET INTO FAR WESTERN SECTIONS BY
DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL ACROSS
NE NJ AND NYC, WITH ABOUT AN INCH, BUT DECREASING TO THE NORTH
AND EAST, WITH ONLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ACROSS FAR EASTERN LI
AND SE CT. WHILE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE A SHARP EDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
IT COULD TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TO GET INTO FAR
SE CT AND THE TWIN FORK OF EASTERN LI. THIS WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AND TIMING ARE MOST UNCERTAIN.
SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE QUITE RAW WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW GUSTING UP
TO 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT EVEN GET OUT OF
THE 40S FOR HIGHS. INTERIOR SOUTHEAST CT LIKELY TO BE THE
WARMEST DUE TO THE SLOWER ONSET OF THE RAIN.
RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LIKELY
DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND TAPERING DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AS THE FRONTAL WAVE DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. SUNDAY COULD VERY WELL BE DRY, BUT A CHANCE FOR RAIN HAS
BEEN KEPT IN THE FORECAST. IN FACT, THE CHANCE HAS INCREASED
SOME. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
NW FLOW CUTOFFS AN UPPER LOW. THERE ARE SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY. THE 12Z CANADIAN
IS A VERY WET SOLUTION WITH OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
AREA (SAT-SUN), WITH THE 00Z ECMWF MORE OF THE IN BETWEEN
SOLUTION.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER SUNDAY, PROVIDED THE DRIER FORECAST
HOLDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A SERIES OF PACIFIC SYSTEMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE COUNTRY
DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING THE AREA
AND PRODUCING A PERIOD OF RAIN WED AND/OR THU. TIMING IS LOW
CONFIDENCE ATTM, BUT THE MODELING DOES SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD OF
THIS OVERALL PATTERN DEVELOPMENT.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BUILDS GRADUALLY BUILDS WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT STALLED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR PREVAILS.
A NW FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT AND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AND
ENDING AROUND 00Z. WINDS REMAIN NORTHERLY TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
FALLING TO CLOSER TO 5KT OR LESS INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING PUSH. LIGHT
WINDS MAINLY FROM THE N FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOUTHERN COASTAL
TERMINALS HAVING WINDS VEER DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO
EAST.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY: PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
FORECAST WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR THE AREA ON SATURDAY PASSES
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS
A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE LOW WILL
BE ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS
HINGES ON THE LOW TRACK TO OUR SOUTH.
WINDS AND SEAS AREA LIKELY TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS MON INTO TUE, WITH
SEAS ON THE OCEAN POSSIBLY BUILDING TO 5 FT OR GREATER BY TUE NGT OR
WED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JMC/DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/DW
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