229
FXUS61 KOKX 241134
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
734 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WET AND COOL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY.
2) RAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CT AND THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WHERE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE SYSTEM ONCE IT IS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE
THE SLOWEST AND CLOSEST WITH THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING WET
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AREAS. THE GFS
REMAINS THE DRIEST, KEEPING SUNDAY DRY. STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM
FOR POP AND QPF FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT SHOWS A GOOD
BLENDED SOLUTION.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH NYC AND NORTHEAST NJ NOW
LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST AN INCH. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OF
RAIN FROM 12Z SATURDAY TO 12Z SUNDAY FOR THOSE AREAS IS AT 80
PERCENT. AMOUNTS LOWER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GET.
THE FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY BOTH DAYS AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY AND
LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE. NBM
POPS STRETCH FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS LIKELY A
RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS AND RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL
BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAIN LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE STAYING WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY IMPACT EASTERN TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR UNTIL
13Z. WE REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT UNTIL MVFR RETURNS IN SHOWERS
STARTING 12Z TOMORROW.
WINDS START AROUND 10 KT THIS MORNING FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
UNTIL A SEA BREEZE. WINDS BECOME MORE OF A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW LATER TODAY, 5-10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE MAY BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN DEVELOPING FROM
WEST TO EAST. E-ESE WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. ENE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT DAY INTO EARLY EVE.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY: PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. SE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHERE WIND AND WAVE FORECAST AS INCREASED GIVEN
INCREASED POTENTIAL IN AN OFFSHORE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING
NEARBY. 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JT
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