506
FXUS61 KOKX 241721
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
121 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WET AND COOL CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY.
2) RAIN POSSIBLE AGAIN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ON SATURDAY
AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR
SOUTHEASTERN CT AND THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND WHERE THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE IS
STILL STRUGGLING WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE SYSTEM ONCE IT IS
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE CANADIAN AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE
THE SLOWEST AND CLOSEST WITH THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING WET
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN AREAS. THE GFS
REMAINS THE DRIEST, KEEPING SUNDAY DRY. STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM
FOR POP AND QPF FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT SHOWS A GOOD
BLENDED SOLUTION.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH NYC AND NORTHEAST NJ NOW
LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST AN INCH. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OF
RAIN FROM 12Z SATURDAY TO 12Z SUNDAY FOR THOSE AREAS IS AT 80
PERCENT. AMOUNTS LOWER THE FARTHER EAST YOU GET.
THE FLOW WILL BE EASTERLY BOTH DAYS AND THIS COMBINED WITH CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY AND
LOW TO MID 50S FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF
A COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE. NBM
POPS STRETCH FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS LIKELY A
RESULT OF TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE. A WASHOUT IS NOT
EXPECTED BY ANY MEANS AND RIGHT NOW THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL
BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAIN LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR BY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR LATE IN THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP FOR NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS AFTER
12Z, BUT SHOULD BECOME STEADIER AND SPREAD EASTWARD LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN LIKELY HOLDS OFF AT KGON UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
N WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL SHIFT TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
INLAND TERMINALS MAY REMAIN N-NE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BACK TO THE E TONIGHT AND DIMINISH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
ESE-SE SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WIND SHIFT TO THE SE MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
TIMING OF LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND RAIN MAY BE OFF BY 1-3
HOURS ON SATURDAY.
GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE OCCASIONAL.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT: MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN. E-ESE WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. IMPROVEMENTS TO
VFR POSSIBLE FOR INLAND TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHERE WIND AND WAVE FORECAST AS INCREASED GIVEN
INCREASED POTENTIAL IN AN OFFSHORE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERING
NEARBY. 25 KT GUSTS AND 5 TO 6 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JT
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