871
FXUS61 KOKX 241937
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
337 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD FROST LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
TONIGHT.
2) WET AND COOL CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
3) COOLER WETTER PATTERN TOWARDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO EASTERN
LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE NEARLY CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S. AND WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW, WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, AND A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
MIDNIGHT TO 800 AM EDT SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINING, OR SLOWLY RETREATING
TONIGHT WILL KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT
AS A WEAK LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH TO THE WEST.A WEAK INVERT
TROUGH/SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW THIS
EVENING, AND THE CAMS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY WHERE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
DEVELOPS. AND THE NBM ALSO INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE. OTHERWISE
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF, AND MOVES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH RETREATS. THE
HIGH DOES REMAIN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION MAY FALL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CONNECTICUT SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW TRACK
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, PASSING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. AN
INVERTED TROUGH/SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW
SHOWING VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY EXTENDING TO SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, AND
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WHEN AN INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING IN LOW
LYING AND URBAN AREAS. ALSO, WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS, RAINFALL,
AND A SOUTHEAST FLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE NEARLY
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, AND A COUPLE OF RECORD LOW HIGHS MAY BE
IN JEOPARDY.
THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY, AND THEN WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS TO
THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3
PERIODIC WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY ACCOMPANIED BY
PERIODIC MID LEVEL TROUGH ACTIVITY WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN TOWARDS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, ON
AVERAGE A COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST.
LARGE SCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION FORECAST MODELS SHOW
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST SOUTHEAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND. THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS INTO MIDWEEK
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
INCOMING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY VERY WELL ALSO LINGER NEAR THE
REGION HEADING TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE ENTIRE TIME PERIOD IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WASHOUT. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN RELATIVELY SPEAKING ARE FORECAST IN THE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. RAIN SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST AND
RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURE ON AVERAGE WILL COME FROM THE DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES NORMAL. THE
FORECAST LOWS ARE CLOSER TO NORMAL. THEREFORE, THERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS OF A DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR BY AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR LATE IN THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY DEVELOP FOR NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS AFTER
12Z, BUT SHOULD BECOME STEADIER AND SPREAD EASTWARD LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY RAIN LIKELY HOLDS OFF AT KGON UNTIL
LATE IN THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KT.
SOME INLAND TERMINALS MAY REMAIN N-NE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE E TONIGHT AND DIMINISH BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE ESE-SE SATURDAY MORNING AROUND 10 KT. GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NYC AND COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SE AT LGA MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
TIMING OF LOWERING FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND RAIN MAY BE OFF BY 1-3
HOURS ON SATURDAY.
GUSTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE OCCASIONAL.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT: MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN. E-ESE WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. IMPROVEMENTS TO
VFR POSSIBLE FOR INLAND TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND
GUSTS 15-20 KT.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT, AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING TO THE WEST SATURDAY WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS
THE FORECAST WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE THAT A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN
WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET SATURDAY AND THE LOW
APPROACHES. THEN WITH THE LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, THE GRADIENT FLOW
WILL INCREASE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY, SUBSIDING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS.
MAINLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE FOR THE OCEAN
MONDAY NIGHT WHEN SCA CONDITIONS OF SEAS NEAR 5 FT AND SOME
BRIEF 25 KT NE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, APRIL 25:
KEWR: 48/1955
KBDR: 45/1992
KNYC: 43/1919
KLGA: 48/1955
KJFK: 47/1956
KISP: 47/1965
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
CTZ005>008.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JM/MET
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