158
FXUS61 KOKX 251123
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY WERE ADJUSTED DOWN A BIT BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL, WET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS INTO MID NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE AREA RESIDES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE MARITIMES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO THE WEST. AS THE LARGE UPPER
LOW PULLS AWAY LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH APPROACH THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
INVERTED TROUGH APPROACHES AND ULTIMATELY PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INVERTED TROUGH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A PERIOD OF DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT ACROSS CENTRAL NJ THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY, AND SO A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN IS
POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 00Z, ESPECIALLY FROM NYC SOUTH AND EAST NBM
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1" HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST MODEL CYCLES AND PEAK AROUND 70-80% ACROSS THE LOHUD, NE NJ,
NYC AND WESTERN LI. NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 2" ARE
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE CWA, WITH MAX VALUES NEAR 20-25% ACROSS NE
NJ AND LONG ISLAND, COINCIDING WITH THE AREAS OF BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT.
THUS, HAVE GONE A WIDESPREAD 1 - NEARLY 2" OF PRECIP, WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, NYC, NE NJ AND LONG ISLAND. THERE WILL
BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST, WITH INTERIOR AND
EASTERN CT LOOKING AT 0.5" - 0.75" OVERALL. AS THIS WILL BE A LONGER
DURATION EVENT, THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS AT THIS TIME, SAVE
FOR SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F TODAY GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS, POSSIBLE JEOPARDIZING MINIMUM MAXIMUM
(HIGH) TEMPERATURES. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE CPC 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK DEPICTS A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN
INTO EARLY MAY FOR THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS AND SHOTS OF COLD AIR ORIGINATING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH RESPECT TO SENSIBLE
WEATHER FOR THIS WEEK, AFTER A DRY AND WARMER DAY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOWER CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE
IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT, SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE DAY TODAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR LATE IN THE DAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP
FOR NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS AFTER 12Z, BUT SHOULD
BECOME STEADIER AND SPREAD EASTWARD LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ANY RAIN LIKELY HOLDS OFF AT KGON UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY, WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
E/ESE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AROUND 10-12 KT BY LATE
THIS MORNING. GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT MAINLY FOR THE
NYC TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TONIGHT, WINDS TURN NE 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE TIMING OF LOWERING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND ONSET OF RAIN. TIMING MAY BE DELAYED BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 HOURS.
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OCCASIONAL.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR POSSIBLE FOR INLAND TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS TODAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE THAT A FEW BRIEF GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN OCCURRENCE.
GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY, SUBSIDING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THE WATERS. SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH ELEVATED SEAS AND GUSTS
OVER 25KTS.
MAINLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE FOR THE OCEAN MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN SCA CONDITIONS OF SEAS NEAR 5 FT AND SOME BRIEF 25 KT NE
WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, APRIL 25:
KEWR: 48/1955
KBDR: 45/1992
KNYC: 43/1919
KLGA: 48/1955
KJFK: 47/1956
KISP: 47/1965
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DBR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DBR
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