196
FXUS61 KOKX 251903
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
303 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS FOR
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL, WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR RAIN MID TO LATE WEEK WITH AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN IN PLACE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING, AND TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE
REGION.
THE AREA RESIDES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE MARITIMES AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO THE WEST. THE UPPER
LOW TRACKS TO THE EAST SUNDAY, AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND
ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH PASS TO
THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY LOWERING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DEEP SYNOPTIC LIFT
PERSISTS, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH, INTO TONIGHT, AND A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, INTO NORTHEASTERN NJ, NYC, AND SOUTH AND
EAST. NBM PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH RANGE FROM 75 TO
85 PERCENT, WITH GREATER THAN 2 INCHES REMAINING RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE CWA. A SHARP GRADIENT IN ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST, 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH, AND AROUND 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CT. WITH THE CLOUD COVER, RAINFALL, AND EASTERLY WINDS,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. RECORD
MINIMUM MAXIMUM (HIGH) TEMPERATURES MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN TODAY.
SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2
PATTERN INTO THE START OF MAY CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED.
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TRANSLATES EAST MIDWEEK. LEADING
THIS, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DRIVES WELL NORTH INTO HUDSON BAY, WITH A
WEAKENING WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH LOCALLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE THEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH, SPURRING A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT, WHICH EVENTUALLY
TRACKS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL LIKELY.
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW MAY END UP CUTTING OFF NEARBY INTO LATE
WEEK WITH STRONG BLOCKING SOUTH OF GREENLAND, KEEPING AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR RAIN AROUND AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP RESTRAIN
TEMPERATURES, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MID TO LATE WEEK LARGELY IN THE 50S
AND LOW 60S THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND THEN PASS TO THE SOUTH
ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR LATE
IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT, WITH A PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAIN AFTER 22Z. ANY RAIN LIKELY HOLDS OFF AT KGON UNTIL LATE IN
THE DAY (THOUGH -RA WITH NO FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS IS
POSSIBLE FROM 21Z TODAY THROUGH 01Z SUN), WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. MVFR IS
NOT EXPECTED AT KGON UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
E/ESE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE AROUND 10-12 KT BY LATE
THIS MORNING. GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, BUT MAINLY FOR THE
NYC TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TONIGHT, WINDS TURN NE 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR THE TIMING OF LOWERING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AND ONSET OF RAIN. TIMING MAY BE DELAYED BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 HOURS.
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OCCASIONAL.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY: IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR POSSIBLE FOR INLAND TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. ENE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. NE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE 10 KT OR LESS.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS 10 KT
OR LESS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING.
THEN AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT, AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, THE GRADIENT E TO
NE FLOW WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
WELL TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT, SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND ON THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS DURING SUNDAY. THEN SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE
OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A PERSISTENT NE
FLOW. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT, AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AT THIS TIME. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY LINGER AOA 5 FT
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY, APRIL 25:
KEWR: 48/1955
KBDR: 45/1992
KNYC: 43/1919
KLGA: 48/1955
KJFK: 47/1956
KISP: 47/1965
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DR/MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DR/MET
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page