214
FXUS61 KOKX 111138
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
738 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY POST-FRONTAL WINDS AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND
SHOWERS OVER LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT SHOULD END
AROUND OR SOON AFTER DAYBREAK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO DAYTIME THURSDAY.
3) DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH, WITH WINDS
HAVING SHIFTED N AND GUSTING CLOSE TO 25 KT IN SPOTS.
THESE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN BY DAYBREAK MON, WHILE SHOWERS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SE CT ALSO COME TO AN END, PERHAPS
LINGERING OUT ON THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND UNTIL ABOUT 8 AM. A
COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS WILL WORK ITS WAY IN, WITH HIGHS ONLY ON
THE LOWER/MID 60S WHICH IS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARVE OUT A DEEPER MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE PRIMARY LOW
SHOULD HEAD INTO UPSTATE NY AND WEAKEN WED NIGHT, THEN A
SECONDARY SHOULD FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS JUST
SE OF LONG ISLAND DAYTIME THU. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS SHOULD
IMPACT THE AREA LATE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT, WITH WARM CONVEYOR
BELT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY
LOW WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME
EXPECTED TO RUN FROM 2/3 TO 1 INCH, WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS
S CT AND LONG ISLAND. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME NUISANCE IMPACTS FROM
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WED NIGHT, AND PERHAPS INTO THU
MORNING OUT EAST. AFTER THE SECONDARY LOW PASSES, INSTABILITY
SHOWERS VIA COOL CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRI, AND CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THE LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA IN TIME
TO ALLOW FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS
PER NBM AND ECMWF MOS SHOULD RANGE FROM 75-80 IN MOST PLACES ON
SAT, AND THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. HIGHER NBM
PERCENTILE FORECASTS SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. TEMPS OF COURSE WILL BE COOLER ALONG
THE SE CT COAST AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE TERMINALS WILL BE NORTH OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE TODAY.
VFR. ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY N-NE AROUND 10 KT. WINDS WILL THEN BACK
TO THE NW THIS MORNING, OR EVEN S/SW ALONG THE COAST BY MID
AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP 15-18 KT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL. ANY S-SW WINDS BECOME N-NW ONCE AGAIN
EARLY TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS AND SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY VARY
BY 1-2 HOURS MONDAY.
A FEW GUSTS OF 15-18KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE NW FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS. S WINDS G15-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA EXTENDED FOR ALL OCEAN WATERS OUT 20 NM UNTIL 6 AM FROM
SANDY HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND INLET, TIL NOON FROM THERE E TO
MORICHES INLET, AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUT TO MONTAUK POINT
AS SE SWELLS OF 5-6 FT CONTINUE AND ARE MOSTLY RUNNING HIGHER
THAN NWPS FORECAST. A FEW NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE ALSO
LIKELY ON THE OCEAN INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS S FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYS ON WED, SCA COND ARE
LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS, WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. OCEAN SEAS UP TO 5 FT SHOULD THEN LINGER
INTO AT LEAST THU MORNING, POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON E OF
MORICHES INLET.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...GOODMAN
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