989
FXUS61 KOKX 111641
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1241 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO DAYTIME THURSDAY.
2) DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CARVE OUT A DEEPER MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. THE PRIMARY LOW
SHOULD HEAD INTO UPSTATE NY AND WEAKEN WED NIGHT, THEN A
SECONDARY SHOULD FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PASS JUST
SE OF LONG ISLAND DAYTIME THU. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS SHOULD
IMPACT THE AREA LATE DAY WED INTO WED NIGHT, WITH WARM CONVEYOR
BELT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SECONDARY
LOW WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME
EXPECTED TO RUN FROM 2/3 TO 1 INCH, WITH THE HIGHER AMTS ACROSS
S CT AND LONG ISLAND. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME NUISANCE IMPACTS FROM
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WED NIGHT, AND PERHAPS INTO THU
MORNING OUT EAST. AFTER THE SECONDARY LOW PASSES, INSTABILITY
SHOWERS VIA COOL CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL
ALOFT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRI, AND CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LOW SHOULD PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA IN TIME
TO ALLOW FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS
PER NBM AND ECMWF MOS SHOULD RANGE FROM 75-80 IN MOST PLACES ON
SAT, AND THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. HIGHER NBM
PERCENTILE FORECASTS SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT. TEMPS OF COURSE WILL BE COOLER ALONG
THE SE CT COAST AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER, PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS INITIALLY NORTHERLY NEAR 5-10 KTS. THERE WERE SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR 20 KT BUT ARE BECOMING MORE OCCASIONAL. SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FOR KJFK, KLGA, KISP, KBDR
AND KGON BUT UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THOSE SAME WIND TRANSITIONS
TAKE PLACE AT KEWR, KTEB, AND KHPN. THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WILL MAKE FOR A MORE NW WIND ALSO SO THIS MAY VERY WELL
COMPLICATE MATTERS IN TERMS OF WIND DIRECTION. MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW RESUMES BY LATE THIS EVENING AND REMAINS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THEN MORE S-SW FLOW EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND SPEED FORECAST THIS EVENING.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SEA BREEZE WHICH COULD BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
WIND DIRECTION COULD BE MORE NW AS OPPOSED TO MORE SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERLY AND NW FLOW FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE FROM MID THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTS 20-30 KT.
THURSDAY: SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS OUT TO 20
NM, WITH FIRE ISLAND TO MORICHES INLET UNTIL NOON, AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON FROM MORICHES INLET OUT TO MONTAUK POINT AS SE
SWELLS OF 5-6 FT CONTINUE AND ARE MOSTLY RUNNING HIGHER THAN
NWPS FORECAST.
AS S FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYS ON WED, SCA COND ARE
LIKELY ON THE OCEAN AND THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS, WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND OCEAN SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-6 FT. OCEAN SEAS UP TO 5 FT SHOULD THEN LINGER
INTO AT LEAST THU MORNING, POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON E OF
MORICHES INLET.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...JE/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN
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