558
FXUS61 KOKX 111951
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
351 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NOTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MID WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO DAYTIME THURSDAY.
2) DRY AND NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES COURTESY OF NEGATIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE AREA. OTHER THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES OR A BRIEF PASSING LIGHT SHOWER FOR THE EARLY
EVENING, IT WILL BE DRY WITH A TREND TOWARDS CLEARING SKIES INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ON A DEEP W TO WNW
FLOW REGIME. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES MAINLY DUE TO
A GOOD DEGREE OF SUN AS TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 60S, WITH
LOWER 70S A POSSIBILITY FOR THE USUAL WARMER LOCATIONS OF METRO NE
NJ. COASTAL LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST MAY COOL SOME LATER
IN THE DAY DUE TO LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES WITH A WEAKER SYNOPTIC FLOW.
CLOUDS THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. RAIN / SHOWER CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM W TO E AS A WARM FRONT NUDGES IN
FIRST, FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A SLOWING COLD FRONT / OCCLUDED
BOUNDARY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE AN IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM, WITH MAINLY JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF
BENEFICIAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSHOWERS CAN OCCUR. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY
STACKED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES IN PLACE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT
CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDERSHOWERS OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY
DEPEND ON WHETHER BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO A PORTION OF FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
GLOBAL NWP AND AI GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESSION. WITH SOME COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINING ANY
SURFACE HEATING FROM SUNSHINE WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME BROKEN
CUMULUS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM CLOSE
TO 70 ON FRIDAY AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGING ENSUING TEMPERATURES
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
SATURDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY AS NIGHT
TIME MINIMUMS WARM INTO THE 50S, TO AROUND 60 IN THE METROPOLITAN
AREAS.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
SLIDING OFFSHORE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS INITIALLY NORTHERLY NEAR 5-10 KTS. SEA BREEZES ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR KJFK, KLGA, KISP, KBDR AND KGON BUT
MORE UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER THOSE SAME WIND TRANSITIONS TAKE
PLACE AT KEWR, KTEB, AND KHPN. THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WILL
MAKE FOR A MORE NW WIND ALSO SO THIS MAY VERY WELL COMPLICATE
MATTERS IN TERMS OF WIND DIRECTION. MORE NORTHERLY FLOW RESUMES
BY LATE THIS EVENING AND REMAINS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THEN
MORE S-SW FLOW EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTION FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON WIND SPEED FORECAST THIS EVENING.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF SEA BREEZE WHICH COULD BE
OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
WIND DIRECTION COULD BE MORE NW AS OPPOSED TO MORE SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERLY AND NW FLOW FROM ONE HOUR TO
THE NEXT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTS 20-30 KT.
THURSDAY: SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN MOST OCEAN WATERS AND INTO THE
WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. OTHERWISE SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
AFTERWARDS, A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
THE MOST OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY RESULTING IN A LIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A RETURN TO SUB ADVISORY WINDS AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON A PORTION OF THE OCEAN. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE
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