128
FXUS61 KOKX 120033
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
833 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NOTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MID WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO DAYTIME THURSDAY.
2) DRY AND NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT, IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
CLOUDS THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY FROM W TO E AS A WARM FRONT
NUDGES IN FIRST, FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A SLOWING COLD
FRONT / OCCLUDED BOUNDARY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM, WITH
MAINLY JUST ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS MAY
BE LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS CAN OCCUR.
AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED WITH A COLD
POOL ALOFT KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES IN PLACE DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SHOWER ACTIVITY THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT CANNOT RULE
OUT THUNDERSHOWERS OR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY DEPEND ON
WHETHER BREAKS OF SUN CAN OCCUR TO AID IN DESTABILIZATION DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO A PORTION OF FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
GLOBAL NWP AND AI GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESSION. WITH SOME COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINING ANY
SURFACE HEATING FROM SUNSHINE WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME BROKEN
CUMULUS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM CLOSE
TO 70 ON FRIDAY AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGING ENSUING TEMPERATURES
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
SATURDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY AS NIGHT
TIME MINIMUMS WARM INTO THE 50S, TO AROUND 60 IN THE METROPOLITAN
AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10
KT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW GUSTS 15-18KT
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME RIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A S-SW FLOW DEVELOPS
FOR MOST TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS COULD BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. BRIEF
NORTHERLY GUSTS 15-18KT ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS TO THE S/W TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD VARY
BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTS 20-30 KT.
THURSDAY: SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN MOST OCEAN WATERS AND INTO THE
WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. OTHERWISE SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT.
AFTERWARDS, A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DURING
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
THE MOST OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, AND POSSIBLY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY RESULTING IN A LIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A RETURN TO SUB ADVISORY WINDS AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
SEAS ON A PORTION OF THE OCEAN. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JE/DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JE
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