451
FXUS61 KOKX 120705
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
305 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MID WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) DRY AND NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
BECOME OCCLUDED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE THEN PIVOTS NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE PULLING AWAY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IN PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN,
PRIMARILY IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NEARBY INTO FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERY ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE
REMAINS LOW CHANCES OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
RAINFALL. GENERALLY EXPECTING 0.25 - 0.5" OF RAINFALL WITH
PERHAPS UP TO 0.75" IN SOME SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO A PORTION OF FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
GLOBAL NWP AND AI GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESSION. WITH SOME COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINING ANY
SURFACE HEATING FROM SUNSHINE WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME BROKEN
CUMULUS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM CLOSE
TO 70 ON FRIDAY AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGING ENSUING TEMPERATURES
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
SATURDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY AS NIGHT
TIME MINIMUMS WARM INTO THE 50S, TO AROUND 60 IN THE METROPOLITAN
AREAS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SPRINKLES WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10
KT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. A FEW GUSTS 15-18KT
ARE POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF TIME RIGHT BEHIND THE TROUGH. AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A S-SW FLOW DEVELOPS
FOR MOST TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS COULD BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION EARLY THIS EVENING UNTIL A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. BRIEF
NORTHERLY GUSTS 15-18KT ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS TO THE S/W TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD VARY
BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS GUSTS 20-30 KT.
THURSDAY: SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND
GUSTS MAY OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN MOST OCEAN WATERS AND INTO THE
WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. OTHERWISE, SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT.
AFTERWARDS, A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE MOST OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN
WATERS. OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A RETURN TO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON A PORTION OF THE
OCEAN. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...MW
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