667
FXUS61 KOKX 121156
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
756 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MID WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) DRY AND NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
BECOME OCCLUDED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE THEN PIVOTS NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE PULLING AWAY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IN PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN,
PRIMARILY IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NEARBY INTO FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERY ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE
REMAINS LOW CHANCES OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
RAINFALL. GENERALLY EXPECTING 0.25 - 0.5" OF RAINFALL WITH
PERHAPS UP TO 0.75" IN SOME SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO A PORTION OF FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
GLOBAL NWP AND AI GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESSION. WITH SOME COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINING ANY
SURFACE HEATING FROM SUNSHINE WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME BROKEN
CUMULUS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM CLOSE
TO 70 ON FRIDAY AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGING ENSUING TEMPERATURES
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
SATURDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY AS NIGHT
TIME MINIMUMS WARM INTO THE 50S, TO AROUND 60 IN THE METROPOLITAN
AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD SE AND PASS OFF
THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY, THEN SOME BKN MID LEVEL CIGS
COME IN LATE TONIGHT.
N-NW WINDS EITHER SIDE OF 10 KT SHOULD WNW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN BECOME SW-S LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SW SEA BREEZE
SHOULD HOWEVER DEVELOP EARLIER AT KBDR/KGON BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS BECOME S 5-10 TONIGHT, THEN START TO INCREASE TOWARD
DAYBREAK ALONG THE COAST.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AT KSWF.
S WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT, HIGHEST AT THE NYC METROS
AND NEAR THE COAST. LLWS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT KISP
WITH S WINDS 45 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, OTHERWISE MVFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN
THE EVENING AT KSWF AND AT THE NYC METROS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
S WINDS G20-25KT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE
EVENING AT KISP/KGON WITH S WINDS 40 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON
TSTMS. IFR COND POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND WITH ANY
TSTMS, OTHERWISE MVFR COND EXPECTED. SE WINDS G15-20KT IN THE
MORNING AT KISP/KGON.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND POSSIBLE.
NW WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR FOR THE WESTERN MOST OCEAN WATERS AND
INTO THE WESTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.
OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT.
AFTERWARDS, A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE MOST OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN
WATERS. OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A RETURN TO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON A PORTION OF THE
OCEAN. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...MW
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