537
FXUS61 KOKX 121718
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
118 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED MID WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF WET WEATHER FROM LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
2) DRY AND NOTICEABLY WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS INCREASES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR FAR NORTHERN
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOWLY MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
BECOME OCCLUDED OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE THEN PIVOTS NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE PULLING AWAY LATE FRIDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH IN PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN,
PRIMARILY IN THE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME. WITH THE LOW MEANDERING NEARBY INTO FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERY ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
WITH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE
REMAINS LOW CHANCES OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
RAINFALL. GENERALLY EXPECTING 0.25 - 0.5" OF RAINFALL WITH
PERHAPS UP TO 0.75" IN SOME SPOTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO A PORTION OF FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FILLS AND PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. MOST
GLOBAL NWP AND AI GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH A MORE
EAST-NORTHEAST PROGRESSION. WITH SOME COLD AIR ALOFT REMAINING ANY
SURFACE HEATING FROM SUNSHINE WOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME BROKEN
CUMULUS FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA SOME POP-UP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM CLOSE
TO 70 ON FRIDAY AS A WARMING TREND BEGINS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND UPPER RIDGING ENSUING TEMPERATURES
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
SATURDAY, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 80S POTENTIALLY INTO SUNDAY AS NIGHT
TIME MINIMUMS WARM INTO THE 50S, TO AROUND 60 IN THE METROPOLITAN
AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MOVES OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY.
VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, THEN SOME
BKN MID LEVEL CIGS COME IN OVERNIGHT.
WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE WNW BECOME INCREASINGLY SW-S THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME S 5-10 TONIGHT, THEN START TO INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS GUST AT ALL
COASTAL TERMINALS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WED, WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 30 KT TOWARDS MIDDAY FOR KJFK AND KISP.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING AT
KSWF. S WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT, HIGHEST GUSTS
UP TO 35 KT AT SOUTH FACING THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT KISP WITH S WINDS 45 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, OTHERWISE MVFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
EVENING AT KSWF AND AT THE NYC METROS AFTER MIDNIGHT. S WINDS G20-
25KT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AT
KISP/KGON WITH S WINDS 40 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSTMS.
IFR COND POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND WITH ANY TSTMS,
OTHERWISE MVFR COND EXPECTED. MAINLY LIGHT NW WINDS, OTHERWISE SE
WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT KISP/KGON.
FRIDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR
COND POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY: VFR. W WINDS UP TO 10 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY OCCUR FOR THE
ENTRANCE OF NY HARBOR AND ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS. OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT.
AFTERWARDS, A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ALL WATERS AND LIKELY THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES. MARGINAL GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE ENTRANCE OF NY HARBOR AND ADJACENT
OCEAN WATERS AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS WED AFT/EVE WITH HYBRID
SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A RETURN TO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS AND MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS ON A PORTION OF THE
OCEAN. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page