467
FXUS61 KOKX 131133
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
UNSETTLED WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM/LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH GOOD BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GOOD AGREEMENT IN A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET, DIGGING
A TROUGH THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND CLOSING
OFF OVER THE REGION THU INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, RESULTANT
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND SE ONTARIO TODAY,
WITH ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHING TONIGHT. WEAK SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE LIKELY DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY UNDER THE DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW, SLOW SLIDING EAST AND
THEN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND WESTERN
LI WITH STRONG COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS FROM W TO E THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
EAST AND LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM, BUT
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY AM INTO
EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC SET-UP INDICATING
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL INTENSITIES TO INCREASE ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT WASHES OUT THU AM AND THEN AS CONTINUE
IN A MORE BANDED AND CONVECTIVE FASHION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE.THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF 1/2" TO
1" HOURLY RATES LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS
DIURNAL/COLD POOL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING
BASIN AVERAGE OF 0.50- 1" OF RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
MOSTLY FALLING EARLY MORNING INTO THE EVENING, BUT COULD SEE
SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 1.5-2" IF/WHERE DOWNPOURS/EMBEDDED TSTMS
ACTIVITY IS MOST PERSISTENT. LOW PREDICTABILITY ON EXACT
LOCATION AT THIS POINT, BUT SHOULD HAVE MORE DETAIL AS THE EVENT
IS RESOLVED BY HIGH-RES CAMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL LIKELY DISSIPATING THU NIGHT WITH STABILIZING
LOW-LEVELS AND THEN POTENTIALLY RE-DEVELOPING FRIDAY AM INTO
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON CLOSED LOW POSITIONS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
PEA-SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TRANSITION FROM PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW
THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG WAA PATTERN UNDER DEEP W/SW FLOW
ALOFT, AND THEN BUILD-IN OF SOUTHERN UPPER RIDGING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUN AFT AND CROSSES SUN EVE. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
ON SATURDAY (LOWER 80S NE NJ AND ADJACENT NYC METRO). WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 80S (EVEN FOR THE COAST) WITH DEEP MIXING AND OFFSHORE
FLOW.
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY
CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE
SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL
BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME
CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT.
SIGNAL FOR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PASS NE TO SW THRU THE ENTIRE
AREA SUN NIGHT, BEFORE WORKING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. SO DESPITE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT AND 850HPA TEMPS
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, AIR TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY FOR THE CITY/COAST WITH
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE LOWER 50 DEGREES WATERS. TEMPS ALONG THE
SOUTH AND EAST COAST MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, AND
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S/LOWER 70S. AREAS FARTHER WEST OF
THE HUDSON R SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE
70S/LOWER 80S.
POTENTIAL FOR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR (PARTICULARLY AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COASTS) ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW AND MIXING
DOWN OF 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS. TEMPS COULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S-95 ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO AND 80S ELSEWHERE. TDS
APPEAR TO STILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S, WHICH SHOULD KEEP HI NEAR
AIR TEMP.
TEMPERATURES RISING TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE SAT THU MON
AND POTENTIALLY 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THERE
MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES FOR SOME TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
CHANCES OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS INCREASE
TONIGHT. KSWF ALSO HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDER, MAINLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. IF THUNDER WERE TO OCCUR, THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 10-15 KT AND THEN NEAR 15-20 KT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE MORNING NEAR 20 KT ARE EXPECTED AND
THEN THE GUSTS INCREASE TO NEAR 25 TO 30 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST GUSTS FOR KJFK AND KISP WHICH WILL
BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SW WINDS 45-50 KT AT 2KFT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KISP, KBDR AND KGON. SIMILAR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KHPN AND KJFK AS WELL BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN TAFS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL
WATERS AND LIKELY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE OCEAN FOR
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES. MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE ENTRANCE OF NY HARBOR AND ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS AND SOUTH
SHORE BAYS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH HYBRID
SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A RETURN TO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS.GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH MARGINAL NEARSHORE SCA GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON AND SUN FOR OFFSHORE FLOW.
SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO E/SE SWELLS FROM OFFSHORE LOW AND EXITING COASTAL LOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-345-353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MW
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