805
FXUS61 KOKX 131943
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ON THURSDAY.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD WATER
SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD BOATING WEATHER, AND
WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CAN BEEN SEEN DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE SPINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
AT THE SAME TIME, A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE AREA AND WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.
A COASTAL JET IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL NYC, NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
COUNTIES 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE WORST OF THE WIND FROM THIS
PATTERN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT
AS THE WEAK COASTAL LOW SPINS UP.
THE MAIN IMPACT AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND MAINLY FOR NYC AND NORTH AND EAST. GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LATEST CAMS OVER OUR AREA ARE GENERALLY PEAKING WITH
VERY ISOLATED 0.5 INCH/PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. WHILE FORECAST BASIN
AVERAGE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CLOSER TO 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES,
GIVEN POTENTIAL TRAINING WITH A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING
INTO THE AREA AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
PATTERN CHANGE COMING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH AN EVENTUAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN. STUCK CLOSE TO NBM AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
WHICH SHOWS SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WHILE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S,
DEWPOINTS STAY DOWN IN THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL GIVE THE AIR A
MORE COMFORTABLE FEEL. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S.
THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER.
ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND MOVES INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL LINGER NEARBY
JUST TO THE EAST INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN MOST TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD NOT
CAUSE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS OTHER THAN VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS.
CHANCES OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER, MAINLY AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY, HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES AND FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. IF THUNDER WERE
TO OCCUR, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM ABOUT 06-12Z THURSDAY, WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 16Z WITH VICINITY
SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS AROUND 15-
20 KT FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHEST GUSTS FOR KJFK AND KISP
WHICH WILL BE IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SW WINDS 45-50 KT AT 2KFT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AT KISP, KBDR AND KGON. SIMILAR LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS KHPN AND KJFK, BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF LOWERING CATS TONIGHT MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NY
HARBOR, SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND THE OCEAN WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO
MORICHES INLET OUT 20 NM. THIS IS DUE TO 35 KT GUSTS FROM A COASTAL
JET. ALL OTHER WATERS ARE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH 25 TO 30
KT GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY AND THEN SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS
COULD TOUCH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO E/SE SWELLS FROM
OFFSHORE LOW AND EXITING COASTAL LOW.
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-345-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JT
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