552
FXUS61 KOKX 140019
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
819 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ON THURSDAY.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD WATER
SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD BOATING WEATHER, AND
WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CAN BEEN SEEN DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE SPINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
AT THE SAME TIME, A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE AREA AND WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.
A COASTAL JET IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL NYC, NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
COUNTIES 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE WORST OF THE WIND FROM THIS
PATTERN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT
AS THE WEAK COASTAL LOW SPINS UP.
THE MAIN IMPACT AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND MAINLY FOR NYC AND NORTH AND EAST. GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LATEST CAMS OVER OUR AREA ARE GENERALLY PEAKING WITH
VERY ISOLATED 0.5 INCH/PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. WHILE FORECAST BASIN
AVERAGE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CLOSER TO 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES,
GIVEN POTENTIAL TRAINING WITH A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING
INTO THE AREA AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
PATTERN CHANGE COMING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH AN EVENTUAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN. STUCK CLOSE TO NBM AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
WHICH SHOWS SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WHILE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S,
DEWPOINTS STAY DOWN IN THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL GIVE THE AIR A
MORE COMFORTABLE FEEL. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S.
THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER.
ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INTO THURSDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT. BOTH FEATURES ARE EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD THURSDAY EVENING.
INITIAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT EXPECTING SOME
MVFR VISIBILITIES LATE THIS EVENING FOR KSWF AND FOR MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS SPREAD INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH TRANSITION TO MAINLY IFR ON
THURSDAY. LOCALIZED LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT PROBABILITY TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THE MOMENT. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST TO
MVFR AND VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS BY THURSDAY LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING EXCEPT FOR KGON.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS THIS EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH
WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15-20 KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KT. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR MARGINAL THIS EVENING WITH SW WINDS NEAR 40 KT AT 2KFT AGL
EAST OF NYC TERMINALS. KSWF HAS LIGHT FLOW NEAR 5 KTS WITH
VARIABLE DIRECTION THIS EVENING. GUSTS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 5-10 KTS. WINDS FOR BECOME VARIABLE
DIRECTION WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS FOR THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NW-W FLOW NEAR 5-10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KGON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
END TIME OF GUSTS COULD BE 1-2 HOURS BEYOND INDICATED IN TAF.
SHOWER TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
MVFR AND IFR MIGHT BE 1-2 HOURS DELAYED COMPARED TO TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. OTHERWISE
VFR.
FRIDAY: A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH
BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NY
HARBOR, SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND THE OCEAN WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO
MORICHES INLET OUT 20 NM. THIS IS DUE TO 35 KT GUSTS FROM A COASTAL
JET. ALL OTHER WATERS ARE UNDER A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WITH 25 TO 30
KT GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, 5 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE OCEAN WATERS.
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY AND THEN SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS
COULD TOUCH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO E/SE SWELLS FROM
OFFSHORE LOW AND EXITING COASTAL LOW.
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-340-350.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-345-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JT
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