624
FXUS61 KOKX 140552
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
152 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ON THURSDAY.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD WATER
SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD BOATING WEATHER, AND
WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CAN BEEN SEEN DIGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE SPINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
AT THE SAME TIME, A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE AREA AND WILL
LINGER INTO FRIDAY. THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO FRIDAY.
A COASTAL JET IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA. FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL NYC, NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
COUNTIES 35 TO 45 MPH GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE WORST OF THE WIND FROM THIS
PATTERN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT
AS THE WEAK COASTAL LOW SPINS UP.
THE MAIN IMPACT AFTER THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL BE ON THURSDAY AND MAINLY FOR NYC AND NORTH AND EAST. GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT BUT LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. LATEST CAMS OVER OUR AREA ARE GENERALLY PEAKING WITH
VERY ISOLATED 0.5 INCH/PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. WHILE FORECAST BASIN
AVERAGE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CLOSER TO 0.50 - 0.75 INCHES,
GIVEN POTENTIAL TRAINING WITH A POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING
INTO THE AREA AND SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OVER 1 INCH ARE LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
PATTERN CHANGE COMING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH AN EVENTUAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN. STUCK CLOSE TO NBM AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
WHICH SHOWS SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WHILE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE 80S,
DEWPOINTS STAY DOWN IN THE 40S AND 50S. THIS WILL GIVE THE AIR A
MORE COMFORTABLE FEEL. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY
CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S.
THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER.
ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG IT. BOTH THE FRONT AND THE LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
INITIALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT EXPECTING MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BECOMING
MORE INTERMITTENT THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THE MOMENT. IMPROVEMENT IS FORECAST TO MVFR AND VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING EXCEPT FOR KGON.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING BECOMING
VARIABLE 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING NW-W FLOW
NEAR 5-10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KGON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
MVFR AND IFR MIGHT BE 1-2 HOURS DELAYED COMPARED TO TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. OTHERWISE
VFR.
FRIDAY: A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH
BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WARNING CANCELLED AS WIND GUSTS ARE WELL BELOW GALE
THRESHOLDS AND ARE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. ALL GUSTS EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO CLOSER TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE
ISSUED IN PLACE, UNTIL 11PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE NON-OCEAN
ZONES AND UNTIL 2AM THURSDAY FOR THE OCEAN WEST OF MORICHES
INLET TO MATCH THE MORICHES TO MONTAUK SCA SEGMENT.
ADDITIONALLY, OCEAN SEAS NEAR 5 FT ARE FORECAST TONIGHT UNTIL
2AM THURSDAY. 4 FT OCEAN SEAS ARE FORECAST THEREAFTER FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY AND THEN SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SEAS
COULD TOUCH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO E/SE SWELLS FROM
OFFSHORE LOW AND EXITING COASTAL LOW.
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/JT
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