440
FXUS61 KOKX 141423
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1023 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD WATER
SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD BOATING WEATHER, AND
WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT
THE LEADING EDGE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE
LATTER WILL WORK SLOWLY EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LOW.
LATEST CAMS SUPPORT BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS LARGELY DUE
TO DEEPER LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE HIGHEST RAIN PROBABILITIES
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE REFINED. SHOWERS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE FOR NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES ACROSS AREAS UNDER THESE SHOWERS. THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF SOME PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WORKS SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS THE NBM5.0
CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO WARM, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HAVE
GENERALLY ADJUSTED IT DOWNWARD FOR HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF THE NBM DOESN'T SUPPORT AS WARM
OF TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
PATTERN CHANGE COMING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH AN EVENTUAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN. ONCE AGAIN, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A
BIT TRICKY AS THE NBM5.0 CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO WARM, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. HAVE GENERALLY ADJUSTED IT DOWNWARD FOR HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, SOME
CLOUD COVER AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST.
WHILE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 70S
SATURDAY AND THE 80S SUNDAY, DEWPOINTS STAY DOWN IN THE 40S AND
50S. THIS WILL GIVE THE AIR A MORE COMFORTABLE FEEL.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING JUST OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS.
SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR KISP AND
KBDR WITH IFR AT KGON INTO THIS EVENING. KGON COULD FALL TO LIFR
TONIGHT.
MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE NYC
TERMINALS AND MOST WIDESPREAD FROM KBDR/KISP ON EAST TO KGON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
WNW-NW WINDS UNDER 10 KT THIS MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT
AT KGON. THERE IS A CHANCE WIND SPEEDS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 10-15
KT THIS AFTERNOON AT NYC TERMINALS. THE FLOW MAY BE VARIABLE AT
KBDR AND KGON WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH A SOUND BREEZE. NW
FLOW AT NYC TERMINALS TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE
FLOW ELSEWHERE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIND DIRECTION COULD BECOME MORE W AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS COULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN FORECAST 19Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY EARLY.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH
BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND
HEADING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY, WILL PRODUCE A
BUILDING EASTERLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, MAINLY
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA.
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC/DS
MARINE...DW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page