463
FXUS61 KOKX 141720
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
120 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLOW MOVING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. COLD WATER
SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD BOATING WEATHER, AND
WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST THROUGH FRIDAY. AT
THE LEADING EDGE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY WITH A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE
LATTER WILL WORK SLOWLY EAST IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LOW.
RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO DEEPER LIFT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FURTHER WEST, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.50
INCHES ACROSS AREAS UNDER THESE SHOWERS. THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF SOME PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW WORKS SLOWLY EAST AND OFFSHORE.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY AS THE NBM5.0
CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO WARM, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HAVE
GENERALLY ADJUSTED IT DOWNWARD FOR HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE OUTSIDE OF THE NBM DOESN'T SUPPORT AS WARM
OF TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
PATTERN CHANGE COMING UP FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ONCE THE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH AN EVENTUAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN. ONCE AGAIN, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A
BIT TRICKY AS THE NBM5.0 CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO WARM, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST. HAVE GENERALLY ADJUSTED IT DOWNWARD FOR HIGH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, SOME
CLOUD COVER AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO FAVOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER FORECAST.
WHILE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE 70S
SATURDAY AND THE 80S SUNDAY, DEWPOINTS STAY DOWN IN THE 40S AND
50S. THIS WILL GIVE THE AIR A MORE COMFORTABLE FEEL.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND
AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE PUSHING OFFSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT KGON WHERE LIFR-IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR
VFR THIS EVENING AT KGON, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO LIFR-IFR
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOME POCKETS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT KBDR
AND KISP, ESPECIALLY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. KGON MAY ALSO REMAIN
MVFR FRIDAY MORNING.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT THIS AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF AND PUSHING EAST THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WNW-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR MOST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE AT KBDR AND
KGON BEFORE SETTLING TO THE NW THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NW FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS, THEN AROUND 10 KT ON
FRIDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A SW SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK 18-21Z.
WIND SPEEDS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST 21Z-02Z AND
AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR
KEWR AND KTEB.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT: LINGERING MVFR POSSIBLE EASTERN LI AND
SOUTHEAST CT. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
SUNDAY-MODAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND
HEADING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY, WILL PRODUCE A
BUILDING EASTERLY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, MAINLY
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
ISSUE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER SCA CRITERIA.
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page