073
FXUS61 KOKX 141919
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
319 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM
LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD
BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
STEADY RAIN ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CT WILL
PUSH EAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THEY WILL BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THANKS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA, AND SOME CLEARING ALLOWING
FOR SOME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, THIS SHOULD DIMINISH
WITH SUNSET AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. DESPITE NO THUNDER
OBSERVED SO FAR TODAY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS STILL NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY FOR MORE WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THERE IS SOME SUN AND MORE IN THE WAY OF HEATING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN MORE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS, BUT THEY WILL BE EVEN LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST, SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ALOFT SATURDAY INTO A PART OF
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A GOOD CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES UNDER SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON LI AND S CT, UPPER-70S IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC METRO, AND LOW 80S IN NE NJ.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MANY GLOBAL MODELS ARE RESOLVING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS MANY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
THIS WILL CLEAR UP EARLY ON SUNDAY. THEN, WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
TO THE EAST, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL GO
FROM 576-578DAM TO 586-588DAM BY TUESDAY, REMAINING 15-20 DAM ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
WITH RIDGING, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80S MOST EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE MODERATED AT THE COAST ON LONG ISLAND AND S CT WITH
HIGHS ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S HERE DUE TO A MORE SE FLOW OFF
THE OCEAN. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS LI AND S CT, WHILE THE SHORE OF LI AND AND
INTERIOR S CT MAY REACH THE LOW-90S. LOW TO MID 90S IS ANTICIPATED
ELSEWHERE INCLUDING NYC METRO, NE NJ, AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOK TO STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, POSSIBLY NEARING 60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, THIS
MEANS THE WARMTH WILL BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH HEAT INDICES
LESS OF A CONCERN.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS
WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY
AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY, DAY 7, APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT A
BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UPPER-
LOW TRAVERSING THROUGH CANADA. PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH THIS, AS
WELL, BUT DETAILS REMAIN FUZZY THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE PUSHING OFFSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
AT KGON WHERE CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND LIFR INTO EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR
THIS EVENING AT KGON, BEFORE FALLING BACK TO LIFR-IFR OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE AT KBDR AND KISP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
KGON MAY ALSO REMAIN MVFR FRIDAY MORNING.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR MAINLY KGON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD ARE LIGHT WITH VARYING
DIRECTIONS BETWEEN SW-NW. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE TO THE WNW-NW BY THIS
EVENING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF
BELOW 10 KT TONIGHT BEFORE SETTLING TO AROUND 10 KT FRIDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE WNW-NW AT JFK MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS
THIS EVENING.
WIND DIRECTION MAY VARY BETWEEN SW AND NW AT KLGA, KEWR, AND KTEB
THROUGH 22Z. WINDS SHOULD SETTLE TO THE WNW-NW THEREAFTER.
AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 20 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FOR KEWR
AND KTEB 20Z-01Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT: LINGERING MVFR POSSIBLE EASTERN LI AND
SOUTHEAST CT. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY-MODAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
HEADING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY, WILL PRODUCE A
BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OCEAN WATERS, STARTING WITH MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT LATE
TONIGHT, THEN WESTWARD, WITH SANDY HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND STARTING
AT 11 AM FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, WITH
SUB SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SCA GOES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OCEAN
WATERS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TUE INTO TUE NIGHT, SEAS ON OCEAN WATERS MAY CLIMB TO
5 FT.
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JP/BR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JP/BR
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