748
FXUS61 KOKX 150040
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
840 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
2) SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD
BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVING OVER THE
AREA WITH ITS COLD POOL ALOFT. THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVES
ACROSS TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL BUT
THE THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MEAN MORE IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS, BUT THEY WILL BE EVEN LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST, SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED ALOFT SATURDAY INTO A PART OF
SUNDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A GOOD CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES UNDER SUNNY SKIES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ON LI AND S CT, UPPER-70S IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND NYC METRO, AND LOW 80S IN NE NJ.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MANY GLOBAL MODELS ARE RESOLVING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TO PASS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS MANY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
THIS WILL CLEAR UP EARLY ON SUNDAY. THEN, WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
TO THE EAST, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN. 500MB HEIGHTS WILL GO
FROM 576-578DAM TO 586-588DAM BY TUESDAY, REMAINING 15-20 DAM ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
WITH RIDGING, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
IN THE 80S MOST EVERYWHERE, EXCEPT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MONDAY
MAY BE A LITTLE MODERATED AT THE COAST ON LONG ISLAND AND S CT WITH
HIGHS ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S HERE DUE TO A MORE SE FLOW OFF
THE OCEAN. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S ACROSS LI AND S CT, WHILE THE SHORE OF LI AND AND
INTERIOR S CT MAY REACH THE LOW-90S. LOW TO MID 90S IS ANTICIPATED
ELSEWHERE INCLUDING NYC METRO, NE NJ, AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY LOOK TO STAY IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, POSSIBLY NEARING 60 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. OVERALL, THIS
MEANS THE WARMTH WILL BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH HEAT INDICES
LESS OF A CONCERN.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS
WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY
AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF THIS WEEK.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY, DAY 7, APPEAR TO BE HINTING AT A
BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UPPER-
LOW TRAVERSING THROUGH CANADA. PRECIP LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH THIS, AS
WELL, BUT DETAILS REMAIN FUZZY THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVE FARTHER EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR NYC TERMINALS AND
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TO THE EAST OF
NYC TERMINALS, THERE ARE HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR MVFR WITHIN THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, PARTICULARLY
FOR KGON, SUB-IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING. FOR KGON, MUCH OF
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIFR WITH FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS. FRIDAY FOR KGON WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE IMPROVEMENT
TO MVFR.
REGARDING WINDS, NYC TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE NORTH AND
WEST ARE GETTING A MORE NW FLOW NEAR 10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KT AS WELL. THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING. FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY DECREASES TO NEAR
5-7 KTS MOSTLY FROM NW BUT SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MORE
VARIABLE DIRECTION AS WELL. NW FLOW EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY NEAR
10 KT WITH GUSTS ALSO DEVELOPING AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE FOR MOST TERMINALS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUST TIMING COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH MVFR.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: LINGERING MVFR POSSIBLE EASTERN LI AND SOUTHEAST
CT. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR WITH POSSIBLE RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY.
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND
HEADING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY, WILL PRODUCE A
BUILDING EASTERLY SWELL ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. A SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS REMAINS FOR ALL OCEAN
WATERS, STARTING WITH MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT LATE
TONIGHT, THEN WESTWARD FOR FRIDAY, WITH SANDY HOOK TO FIRE
ISLAND STARTING AT 11 AM FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY, WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SCA GOES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
OCEAN WATERS.
SCA SEAS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SUNDAY.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. TUE INTO TUE NIGHT, SEAS ON OCEAN WATERS MAY CLIMB TO
5 FT.
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JP/BR/JM
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP/BR/JM
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