431
FXUS61 KOKX 151800
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
200 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
2) SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
OF NEXT WEEK.
3) COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH
GOOD BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL PASS TO THE EAST
TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL
BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND EASTERN LI. STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, CYCLONIC FLOW, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
W-NW WINDS MAY GUST 15 TO 20 MPH.
HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GET UP INTO THE 60S, SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY,
THEN FLATTENS SOME FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT RISES WORK INTO THE EASTER THIRD OF THE COUNTRY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE LATTER OF WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP, WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME, FORECAST HIGHS FALL WELL SHORT OF
RECORD HIGHS, WITH MANY WELL INTO THE 90S.
BEFORE THEN THOUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S SATURDAY, THEN
INTO THE 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY. HIGHS COULD GET
CLOSE TO 90 ACROSS METRO NE NJ. BDR AND ISP ARE FORECAST TO BE A
FEW DEGREES SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY, WHICH IS 85 SET BACK
IN 1974.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS A BIT TRICKY AS THE NBM5.0
CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO WARM, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HAVE
GENERALLY ADJUSTED IT DOWNWARD FOR HIGH TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT COOLER
THAN THESE VALUES AS WELL. WHAT IS INTERESTING, IS THE NBM BOX
AND WHISKER PLOTS SHOW VERY SMALL DIFFERENCES OVER THE WEEKEND
BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES. THE MEDIAN AND NBM
DETERMINISTIC ARE NEARLY ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. SO THIS TELLS US
THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, THE BIAS
ALGORITHMS MAY BE STILL ADJUSTING HEADING INTO THE WARM SEASON.
TIME WILL TELL.
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIDWEEK CONTINUES TO SHOW A BREAK
DOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UPPER-LOW
TRAVERSING CANADA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH A COOL DOWN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR KGON, BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTING, CHANCES ARE DECREASING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY, 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KT OR SO. SEA BREEZE IS TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH KBDR, BUT MAY PUSH BACK SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE NW FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT, SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR S WINDS
THERE THROUGH 20Z. OTHERWISE, PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KEWR. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL AT TIMES.
WINDS THIS EVENING DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KT, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR. S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY: VFR. SW WINDS 5-10KT.
MONDAY: VFR. SE WINDS 5-10KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: VFR BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT, BECOMING WSW BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A BUILDING SE SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE HEADING UP INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIME WILL PRODUCE SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
TODAY INTO THE FIST HALF OF TONIGHT. ANY RESPITE AFTER THIS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED, AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN TO THE EAST. A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SOME OF THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS COULD EVE SEE A PERIOD OF 25 KT
GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THE
SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SEAS COULD
LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW TEMPORARILY BACK TO THE AS FLOW WEAKEN UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATER
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH STRENGTHENING SW FLOW, POTENTIALLY FOR
ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES
CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO
ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL
BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME
CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DW
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