039
FXUS61 KOKX 160851
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
451 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER TO
FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD
BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BY MONDAY NIGHT, 50H ANOMALIES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS MUCH
WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE HOTTEST DAYS ARE FORECAST
TO BE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THESE DAYS, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO AS HIGH AS 95 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
WARMEST READINGS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AND INTERIOR
SOUTHER CT. GUSTY SW-S WINDS BOTH OF THESE DAYS WILL BRING IN
COOLER MARITIME AIR IN ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LI.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S, THEN INTO THE 80S, POSSIBLY 90 SUNDAY.
MONDAY POSES A BIT OF AN ANOMALY DURING THIS PERIOD, AS A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO
MORE OF A MARINE INFLUENCE WITH SE WINDS. MANY LOCATIONS WILL
SEE HIGHS FALL OFF 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
BEING LOCATIONS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. A PASSING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND INTO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE JUST ENOUGH TO
GET THE FRONT AS FAR NE NJ AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. THE FRONT QUICKLY RETURNS TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE S/SW FLOW IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE HOTTEST DAYS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH 95 IN SPOTS AWAY FROM THE
COAST.
NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE KNOCKED DOWN SOME BASED ON A NOTED
WARM BIAS EARLY IN THE WARM SEASON.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND/OR
SPRINKLE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE
COULD ALSO BE AN ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM NORTH AND WEST
OF NYC MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW MID TO
LATE WEEK SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. NBM DOES
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM. THE 00Z GFS,
AIGFS, AND EC-AIFS ARE SLOWER WITH POTENTIAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER.
ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD
PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS AT KGON WHERE SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED. ANY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SW TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SW WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH S/SW GUSTS TO 25 KT
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 30KT POSSIBLE FOR JFK AND KISP IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
S/SW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT LIKELY FOR THE LATE AFT/EARLY EVE PUSH.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. S/SW WINDS SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 10KT.
ISOLATED SHRA POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: VFR. W/SW WINDS 10-15G20KT, GIVING WAY TO LATE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FOR SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS.
MONDAY: VFR. SE WINDS 10-15G20KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. S/SW WINDS 10-20G25KT. ISOLATED TSRA POTENTIAL
LATE MONDAY AFT/EVE, MAINLY WEST OF HUDSON TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR, GIVING WAY TO POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER IN
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. S/SW WINDS
15-20G25-30KT. NW WINDSHIFT IN THE EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, SOUTH SHORE BAYS, AND
NY HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON.
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AS WELL
AS LOWER NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF W LI. OCCASIONAL 25
KT ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN BAYS
AND EASTERN SOUND, BUT THIS LOOKS TO BE FOR A REAL SHORT
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, OCEAN SEAS COULD LINGER AROUND 5 FT
FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH RESIDUAL S SWELL.
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES
CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE
SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS,
CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS FLOW TEMPORARILY WEAKENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW, POTENTIALLY FOR ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW
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