201
FXUS61 KOKX 170740
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A BIT COOLER WEDNESDAY DUE TO FASTER COLD FRONT TIMING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.
2) AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER TO FOLLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
3) COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD
BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A STRETCH UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A BRIEF INTERRUPTION ON MONDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL
GET INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90, WARMEST NORTH AND WEST OF THE
NYC METRO. THE SOUTH SHORE BEACHES OF LI WILL BE THE COOLEST,
WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH HIGHER THAN 70. THIS
IS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW (S-SW) WITH OCEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. OTHER, COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL FAIR
BETTER WITH LESS OF MARITIME INFLUENCE.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH TODAY AND A CONFLUENT
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO DROP DOWN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A REAL SHALLOW, COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE LATEST
CAMS, DO GET THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHERN
NJ, BUT NOT TOO MUCH FARTHER WEST. AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST
SHOULD STILL APPROACH 90, BUT IN GENERAL, EXPECTING HIGHS TO BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER MONDAY. MOST OF THE CLIMATE SITES ARE
WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF RECORDS.
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THIS
TIME WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN ALOFT. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS GRADUALLY EAST MONDAY NIGHT, THE FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING
OF THE LAYER. 85H TEMPS ON TUESDAY GET TO 18C OR EVEN A BIT
HIGHER. THERE STILL WILL BE A MARITIME INFLUENCE AT THE COAST
WITH A GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS DO VEER MORE TO THE SW ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WAS
ORIGINALLY GOING TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH CHANCES INCREASING FOR
AN AFTERNOON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY THE 80S
AT THE COAST (MINUS THE SOUTH SHORE BEACHES OF LI), TO THE
LOWER AND MID 90S FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST. DURING
THIS TIME, UNDERCUT NBM HIGHS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES. THIS IS PARTLY
DUE TO ITS EARLY SEASON WARM BIAS AND POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLIER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS RECORDS HIGHS
ARE LOOKING UNLIKELY FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. RECORD HIGH MINS ARE
A BETTER POSSIBILITY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A FEW WEAK IMPULSES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE COULD RESULT
IN SPRINKLES OR A SHOWER LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOW
CONFIDENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A LESS AMPLIFIED, POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER MOVES THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST MIDWEEK SENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO TREND FASTER WITH A
POSSIBLE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS
TIME. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS TODAY AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES
OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER OVERNIGHT. EXPECT NO RESTRICTIONS TO FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.
S-SW WINDS NEAR 5-10 KT. WINDS THEN BECOME MORE WSW 10-15KT
SUNDAY WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR. SE WINDS 10-15G20KT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE.
TUESDAY: VFR. S/SW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT DAY INTO EVE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE, MAINLY NORTH
OF NYC TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: VFR, GIVING WAY TO POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS LIKELY AFTERNOON
INTO EVE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S/SW WINDS
10-15G20-25KT DAY INTO EVE. PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT POSSIBLE.
NW WINDSHIFT IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEANS THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
SEAS ARE A BIT LOWER THIS MORNING AND BASED ON TRENDS IN THE
GUIDANCE, SEAS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW 4 FT ON THE NEARSHORE
OCEAN ZONES BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS TODAY AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES
OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS FLOW TEMPORARILY WEAKENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW, POTENTIALLY FOR ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page