001
FXUS61 KOKX 180348
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1148 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AIR QUALITY ALERTS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL AS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE REGION EARLY TO MID PART
OF THIS WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.
3) MUCH COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
4) COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD
BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.
OVERALL, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION. THEN ON MONDAY, THIS FRONT
MOVES BACK EAST OF THE REGION. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY WITH SOME GUSTS ALONG THE COAST.
MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MORE
APPARENT ON MONDAY DUE TO THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. LOCATIONS
FARTHER EAST WILL BE COOLER WITH MORE ONSHORE MARITIME INFLUENCE
(HIGHS IN THE 70S) WHILE LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NYC
WILL BE SOME OF THE WARMEST RELATIVELY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90).
THE 850MB TEMPERATURES DO SHOW A REMARKABLE INCREASE AMONGST
THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS, GOING UP NEAR 3 TO 4
DEGREES C DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE LOCAL AREA GETS MORE INTO
THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY, THE
MODELS SHOW ANOTHER DEGREE WARMTH IN 850MB TEMPERATURES.
FOR THE WHOLE AREA, MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS NOT CHANGING MUCH FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY, THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE
AS WELL. THIS IS LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHEST HEAT INDICES AS WELL. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES RIGHT NEAR
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE WITH SOME LOCATIONS ABOUT A DEGREE
HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. NO LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 100 DEGREES TEMPERATURE. THE BLEND OF TEMPERATURES WAS
FROM MOS CONSENSUS AND NBM. NBM ALONE SEEMED TOO HIGH BUT AFTER
NOTING THE RELATIVELY GREATER WARMTH OF ECMWF AND CANADIAN 850MB
TEMPERATURES, DID NOT WANT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES TOO MUCH.
MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, WEATHER REMAINS MAINLY DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LOWER MORE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MORE
COOLING APPARENT IN THE MODELS 850MB FIELDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
QUICKER TREND TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WITH EVEN THE
12Z SUNDAY NAM SHOWING THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA BY 5PM WEDNESDAY. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND BEING SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE START OF
THE EVENING, THIS WILL REALLY LIMIT THE DAYTIME WARMTH AND
THEREFORE THE INSTABILITY THAT WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FORECAST, SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST.
THE BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM AGL FORECAST VALUES OF NEAR 30-40 KT
COULD VERY WELL OVERCOME THAT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND ALLOW FOR
SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD BRING SOME BRIEF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND A QUICK PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN. NOT TOO CONCERNED
WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL BECAUSE OF THE RAPID MOVEMENT EXPECTED
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FLOW
ALOFT HAS MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT INSTEAD OF SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE MARGINAL
WITH THIS KIND OF ENVIRONMENT.
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WERE LOWERED FROM NBM BY ALSO
BLENDING WITH MOS CONSENSUS, MAINLY NEAR 80 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE.
WOULD EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO BE SET BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN START DECLINING WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
AS THE COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
MID LEVEL RIDGE SUPPRESSED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY BUT THEN MOVES NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST DECREASE BY NEAR 15 TO 20 DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY.
COOLING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THEN JUST LOW TO MID 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY. ALONG
WITH THAT ASIDE FROM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
BE MAINLY DRY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
FARTHER AWAY AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 4
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS TODAY AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES
OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE E-SE MONDAY AROUND 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS SHIFT MORE S TOWARD
MONDAY EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. S/SW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT INTO EVE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE, MAINLY NORTH
OF NYC TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: VFR, GIVING WAY TO POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS LIKELY AFTERNOON
INTO EVE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S/SW WINDS
10-15G20-25KT DAY INTO EVE. PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT POSSIBLE.
NW WINDSHIFT IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA WILL BE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FETCH, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN.
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH OTHERWISE CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BE BELOW SCA
THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY.
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS TODAY AS WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES
OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 19:
KEWR: 98/1962
KBDR: 89/2017
KNYC: 99/1962
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 89/2017
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 17:
KEWR: 68/2015
KBDR: 60/2025
KNYC: 70/1906
KLGA: 68/1965
KJFK: 63/1965
KISP: 62/2015
MAY 18:
KEWR: 74/2017
KBDR: 66/2017
KNYC: 75/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 65/2017
KISP: 63/1977
MAY 19:
KEWR: 67/1986
KBDR: 66/2017
KNYC: 68/1986
KLGA: 68/2017
KJFK: 67/2017
KISP: 65/2017
MAY 20:
KEWR: 72/1996
KBDR: 61/2019
KNYC: 74/1996
KLGA: 77/1996
KJFK: 63/1996
KISP: 62/1996
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
NYZ069>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JM
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