438
FXUS61 KOKX 281758
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
158 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAISING SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR NY HARBOR
WHERE NEAR SHORE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH 25 KNOTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING SE ACROSS ERN
CANADA WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND AND DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
SO AFTER A WARMER THU/FRI WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, SAT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND ALMOST BRISK,
WITH A NW WIND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH. TEMPS DAYTIME SAT PER MOS
MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 70-75 WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY STALL OVER THE NORTHEAST AND PRODUCE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MON-WED. SOME OF
THE MODELING HOWEVER SUGGESTS A MORE TRANSITORY PATTERN,
PRODUCING LESSER CHANCES DURATION-WISE. THE BLENDED APPROACH WAS
FOLLOWED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
A RESIDUAL 2-FT 7 TO 8 SEC SE SWELL LINGERING.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
BEHIND IT, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
MAINLY VFR, BUT BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.
NW WINDS TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL BE WEAKER AND NOT AS FREQUENT AS KGON DUE TO WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA. A FEW TERMINALS MAY SEE
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER 00Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AN ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT
MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.
PEAK GUSTS 25-30 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT: CHANCE SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND E OF THE NYC METROS.
NW WINDS G20-25KT LATE.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW-N WINDS G25-30KT.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FOR NY HARBOR WHERE
NEAR SHORE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH 25 KT.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS FROM FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY
SAT AFTERNOON, WITH OCEAN SEAS UP TO 5 FT AND WIND GUSTS 25-30
KT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE WATERS
FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT 20-60 NM COULD SEE GALES
BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/JP
AVIATION...BC/DW
MARINE...GOODMAN/JP
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