627
FXUS61 KOKX 290013
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
813 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
WEAK SFC REFLECTION MOVE THROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
TSTM ACROSS SE CT BEFORE ACTIVITY WANES WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIVING SE INTO THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND OFF THE US EAST COAST WILL
DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SAT WITH HIGH TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70 IN
URBAN NE NJ, RISING NO HIGHER THAN THE 60 MOST ELSEWHERE, AND
POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 50S OVER INTERIOR SE CT. A COOL
NIGHT WILL FOLLOW, WITH SOME LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN SPOTS WELL
INLAND AND IN THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS REGION, IN THE 40S
MOST ELSEWHERE, AND THE LOWER 50S IN NYC. TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE
TO RECORD LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AT LGA AND JFK.
INTO THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER, GLOBAL DYNAMICAL AND AI
BASED ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, REINFORCING LOWER HEIGHTS, BEFORE
POTENTIALLY CUTTING OFF INTO MIDWEEK. THE GFS/GEFS ARE MOST
PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SOLUTION, KEEPING A MEANDERING UPPER LOW
NEARBY, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING A BIT COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED. EPS AND GEPS FURTHER SOUTH OR EAST WITH LESS
INFLUENCE LOCALLY.
FOR NOW, PERIODIC DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HANGING NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
WITH A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS, CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH 2-4
FT SWELLS AT 5-8 SEC PERIODS. WATER LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE
WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON, WITH SOME TIDAL PILING ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW.
SOME SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE TIDAL WATERWAYS OF NE NJ AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS
OF NASSAU WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PER BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND OF ETSS/STOFS/NYHOPS FORECASTS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE WITH ANY SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DROP IN VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.
WINDS ARE GOING TO BE MAINLY N TO NW THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 10-15 KT THIS EVENING WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY TO NEAR 5-10 KTS WITH
GUSTS DIMINISHING. WINDS BECOME MORE WNW-SW FRIDAY LATE MORNING
TO AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 10-15 KT AND AGAIN
DEVELOP GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
PEAK GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: CHANCE SHOWERS WITH MVFR EAST OF THE NYC METROS.
NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT. PEAK GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW-N WIND GUSTS 25-30KT. GUSTS DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY: VFR. SOME SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT IN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONTINUES INTO EARLY EVENING NY HARBOR WHERE NEAR SHORE
GUSTS 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING E OF NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERATE STRONG WIND GUSTS. GALE
WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET FOR SAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT LIKELY, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 7-11 FT. GUSTS 25-30 KT ALSO LIKELY ON ALL OTHER
WATERS FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ON ALL WATERS, AND
CONTINUING ON THE ERN SOUND AND THE NEARSHORE ERN OCEAN WATERS
INTO SAT EVENING. NEAR SHORE OCEAN SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD TO AT
LEAST 5-8 FT DURING THIS TIME MAINLY E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH 5 FT ON THE ERN OCEAN WATERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR ANZ350-380.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...GOODMAN/DR
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