831
FXUS61 KOKX 291130
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
730 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERNMOST COASTAL WATERS
(THE EASTERN SOUND, EASTERN BAYS, AND OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF THE
SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND OUT TO 60 NM).
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES FOR MAINLY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIVING SE INTO THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SAT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND POSSIBLY NOT
GETTING OUT OF THE 50S OVER INTERIOR SE CT. A COOL NIGHT WILL
FOLLOW, WITH SOME LOWS IN THE 40S, AND THE LOWER 50S IN NYC.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS WELL INLAND AND IN
THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY MORNING AT LGA AND JFK.
INTO THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER, MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
NEW ENGLAND IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, REINFORCING
LOWER HEIGHTS, BEFORE POTENTIALLY CUTTING OFF INTO MIDWEEK. THE
GFS/GEFS ARE MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SOLUTION, KEEPING A
MEANDERING UPPER LOW NEARBY, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING A BIT
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED. EPS AND GEPS FURTHER SOUTH OR EAST
WITH LESS INFLUENCE LOCALLY.
FOR NOW, PERIODIC DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERSIST AT LEAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY HANGING NEAR NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.
WITH A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS, CONTINUED TO FOLLOW A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY WITH 2-4
FT SWELLS AT 5-8 SEC PERIODS. WATER LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE
WITH THE UPCOMING FULL MOON, WITH SOME TIDAL PILING ALSO
POSSIBLE FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW.
SOME SPOTTY MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE TIDAL WATERWAYS OF NE NJ AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS
OF NASSAU WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PER BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND OF ETSS/STOFS/NYHOPS FORECASTS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE WITH ANY SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT,
WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF DROP IN VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF NYC.
WINDS ARE GOING TO BE N TO NW THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS AROUND
5-10KT. WINDS BECOME MORE WNW-SW LATE THIS MORNING TO AFTERNOON
AND INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 10-15 KT AND AGAIN DEVELOP GUSTS NEAR
20-25 KT. TONIGHT, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WINDS BECOME NW AND
GUST 20-30KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
MVFR POSSIBLE LATE IN TAF PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
PEAK GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW-N WIND GUSTS 25-30KT. GUSTS DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY: VFR. SOME SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT IN AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORM MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY. CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN GET MARGINALLY CLOSE FOR SCA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, ALL THE WATERS COULD
POTENTIALLY HAVE SCA LEVEL GUSTS.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING E OF NEW ENGLAND WILL GENERATE STRONG WIND GUSTS. SCAS
ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT AS GUSTS 25-30 KT BECOME
LIKELY. SCAS STEP UP TO GALE WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN E OF
MORICHES INLET STARTING SAT MORNING WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
LIKELY, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-11 FT. GALE WARNINGS ALSO ISSUED
FOR THE EASTERN SOUND, PECONIC BAY AND GARDINER'S BAY AS GUSTS
TO 35 KT LOOKS LIKELY THERE AS WELL SATURDAY MORNING. FOR ALL
OTHER WATERS, SCAS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NEAR SHORE OCEAN SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD TO AT LEAST 5-8
FT DURING THIS TIME MAINLY E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS FROM FIRE
ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-335-338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ332-
340.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ332-340-350-
380.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP
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