812
FXUS61 KOKX 300026
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
826 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COMPACT AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIVES SE INTO THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
AND POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 50S OVER INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF SE CT. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICE A
WIND ADVISORY WAS CONSIDERED FOR FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BUT CHOSE TO HOLD OFF FOR THE TIME BEING, MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY
HIGH CONDITIONALITY OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BEING ACHIEVED.
REGARDLESS, A GUST OR TWO OF 45 TO 50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
THE TWIN FORKS OF LI AND NEW LONDON COUNTY, CT LATE SATURDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
A WINDY SATURDAY WITH MOST PLACES EXPERIENCING GUSTS TO AROUND 35
MPH. A COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE MORE
RURAL LOCATIONS, AND THE LOWER 50S IN THE NYC METRO.
WITH THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER (JUNE 1ST), MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK,
REINFORCING LOWER HEIGHTS, AND LIKELY CLOSING OFF AND POTENTIALLY
CUTTING OFF INTO MIDWEEK. THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN MOST
PRONOUNCED WITH THIS SOLUTION, KEEPING A MEANDERING UPPER LOW
NEARBY, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING A BIT COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED.
EPS AND GEPS AND OTHER GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH LESS INFLUENCE LOCALLY. THE THEME HERE
IS THAT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN THE WAVELENGTH / POSITIONING OF THE
MEAN TROUGH AND THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING AMPLIFYING ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE TROUGH.
FOR NOW, PERIODIC AND MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCE IS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES PERSISTING FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY HANGING NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. AFTERWARDS,
TOWARDS THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SOME DEGREE OF UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD FOLLOW, AND THUS A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WHILE THERE WILL BE NO FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT FOR RIPS ON
SATURDAY A LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 3 FEET AT 6S WILL
BE ENOUGH FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NASSAU AND
SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN
IMPACT FOR NYC BEACHES AND THE RISK HAS BEEN LOWERED TO LOW.
FOR SUNDAY, THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SW WIND AND AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AT 10S FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL AREAS.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FULL
MOON LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND SOME TIDAL PILING ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW. A FEW POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIDAL WATERWAYS
OF NE NJ AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PER BIAS- CORRECTED
BLEND OF ETSS/STOFS/NYHOPS FORECASTS. HOWEVER TRENDS HAVE BEEN
INCHING DOWN, THUS HOLDING OFF ON ANY COASTAL PRODUCTS /
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY ETSS ONLY GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
A FEW MINOR BENCHMARKS BEING MET.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LINGERS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
FOR NYC TERMINALS AND TERMINALS TO THE NORTH AND WEST, VFR FORECAST
PERIOD EXPECTED. THESE TERMINALS MAY GET SOME RAIN SPRINKLES OR VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED.
TO THE EAST, MAINLY VFR FORECAST PERIOD FOR KISP AND KBDR WITH SOME
RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A PERIOD OF MVFR
STRATUS FOR EARLY SATURDAY. FOR KGON, MORE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH MORE MVFR STRATUS FOR EARLY SATURDAY WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
REGARDING WINDS, THEY WILL BE CHANGING FROM S-SW TO MORE W-NW LATE
THIS EVENING WITH NORTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIND
SPEEDS NEAR 5-10 KT THIS EVENING, INCREASING TO NEAR 15 KT LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE SATURDAY. GUSTS TONIGHT NEAR
20-25 KT LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AND THEN GUSTS AROUND 30
KT FOR SATURDAY. FOR EAST OF NYC TERMINALS, THOSE GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSER TO AROUND 35 KT AT TIMES. SOME PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 40 KT
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS AND GUSTS DECREASE HEADING INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR.
TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION CHANGES TO MORE NW TO N AS WELL AS THE
HIGHER GUSTS COULD VARY 1-2 HOURS COMPARED TO TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS DIMINISH.
SUNDAY: VFR. SW TO W WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MID
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM WEST TO EAST. GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE WATERS DURING SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
QUICKLY RAMP DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY EVENING, WITH SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS 4
FT OCEAN SEAS LINGER. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-340.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340-
350-380.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ335-338-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
DISCUSSION...JE/JT
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JE
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