564
FXUS61 KOKX 301342
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
942 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR A COOL AND WINDY DAY. GALES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
TO THE CENTRAL OCEAN ZONES AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
2) MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD PASSING EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET
OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF CT AND LONG
ISLAND.
IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, IT WILL BE A RATHER WINDY
DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND REACHING 35-40MPH. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS AS WELL.
A FEW LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, MAINLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST LOCATIONS BEING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WITH THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER (MONDAY - JUNE 1ST), MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, LOOKING AT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKE TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL (LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S).
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WHILE THERE WILL BE NO FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT FOR RIPS TODAY,
A LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 3 FEET AT 6S WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
COUNTY BEACHES. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT
FOR NYC BEACHES AND THE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW. FOR SUNDAY, THE
COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SW WIND AND AN EASTERLY SWELL OF
3-4 FEET AT 10S FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR ALL AREAS.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FULL
MOON LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND SOME TIDAL PILING ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW. A FEW POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIDAL WATERWAYS
OF NE NJ AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PER BIAS- CORRECTED
BLEND OF ETSS/STOFS/NYHOPS FORECASTS. HOWEVER TRENDS HAVE BEEN
INCHING DOWN, THUS HOLDING OFF ON ANY COASTAL PRODUCTS /
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY ETSS ONLY GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
A FEW MINOR BENCHMARKS BEING MET.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE TREKS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
FOR MOST TERMINALS, VFR FORECAST EXPECTED. FOR KISP, KBDR, AND
KGON, A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH FROM 14Z TO
22Z TODAY (ENDING EARLIER FOR KISP AND KBDR). SHOWERS MAY ALSO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE MVFR CONDITIONS, BUT LIMITED TO KGON.
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
REGARDING WINDS, THEY WILL START OFF NW SHIFTING TO THE N
LATER THIS MORNING. GUSTS 25-30 KT INCREASE TO AROUND 30-40
LATER THIS MORNING. FOR TERMINALS EAST OF NYC, GUSTS WILL BE
CLOSER TO 35-40 KT AT TIMES. SOME PEAK GUSTS TO JUST OVER 40 KT
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AND SHIFT MORE TO THE
NW.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE IF GUSTS END UP BEING HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: VFR. NW TO W WIND WITH GUST 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A SHOWER MOVES THROUGH.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH
10Z. GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE WATERS
TODAY. I DID GO AHEAD AND ADD THE CENTRAL OCEAN ZONES AND THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS TO GALES, WITH 35KT GUSTS EXPECTED THERE FOR A LEAST HALF
THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS 4 FT OCEAN SEAS LINGER. SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-332-340-
345-350-353-380-383.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
338-355.
DISCUSSION...BC/MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC
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