635
FXUS61 KOKX 301948
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED.
2) MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
3) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER AWAY THIS EVENING. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS, WINDS SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY DISSIPATE INTO
THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE STRONG N FLOW ALL DAY
AND STRONG CAA INTO THE AREA, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AND NEAR 50 IN
THE NYC METRO. ANY SPOTS THAT ARE ABLE TO RADIATIONALLY COOL IF
WINDS BECOME CALM MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S, ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND AREAS TO THE NORTH.
A FEW CLIMATE SITES MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS WITH THE FORECAST
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT LGA AND JFK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
RIDGING RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE
START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER (MONDAY - JUNE 1ST), MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, LOOKING AT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKE TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL (LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S).
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WHILE THERE WILL BE NO FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT FOR RIPS TODAY,
A LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 3 FEET AT 6S WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
COUNTY BEACHES. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT
FOR NYC BEACHES AND THE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW. FOR SUNDAY, THE
COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SW WIND AND AN EASTERLY SWELL OF
3-4 FEET AT 10S FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR ALL AREAS. THE MODERATE RISK CONTINUES ON
MONDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP TO 10 KTS COMBINED WITH
A SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 2-3 FT AT 5S.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FULL
MOON LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND SOME TIDAL PILING ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW. A FEW POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIDAL WATERWAYS
OF NE NJ AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PER BIAS- CORRECTED
BLEND OF ETSS/STOFS/NYHOPS FORECASTS. HOWEVER TRENDS HAVE BEEN
INCHING DOWN, THUS HOLDING OFF ON ANY COASTAL PRODUCTS /
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY ETSS ONLY GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
A FEW MINOR BENCHMARKS BEING MET.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAINLY VFR. EXCEPTION MAY BE EASTERN TERMINALS (KISP, KBDR,
KGON), PRIMARILY KGON, WHICH COULD HANG ONTO MVFR CIGS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVEMENT. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
AROUND AS WELL, BUT RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
GUSTY N FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SPEEDS 15-25 KT, WITH
GUSTS 30-40 KT, BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIGHTEN INTO THE 20S LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING AND BACK
MORE TO THE NW TONIGHT INTO SUN AM. NW OR WNW FLOW ON SUNDAY,
WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY SWITCHING COASTAL TERMINALS
TO SW OR S IN THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS MAY BECOME MORE NNE OR NE (20-40 DEGREES) AT TIMES INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY PM: VFR. NW WINDS, S/SW ALONG COAST, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR ALL
WATERS AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS
WITH N GUSTS 30-40KT. CONDITIONS WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
ON THE OCEAN SEAS FROM RESIDUAL WAVE HEIGHTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 5 FEET BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...JT/MW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...MW
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