908
FXUS61 KOKX 310033
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
833 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GALE WARNING REMAINS UNTIL 11PM THIS EVENING FOR OCEAN 20 TO 60
NM MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
OTHER MARINE ZONES EXCEPT FOR NY HARBOR AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND UNTIL 11PM THIS EVENING. THE OCEAN ZONES FROM SANDY HOOK
NJ TO MONTAUK POINT OUT 20 NM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED.
2) MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
3) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH MONDAY. SOME ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS, WINDS SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY
DISSIPATE INTO THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE STRONG
N FLOW ALL DAY AND STRONG CAA INTO THE AREA, TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
FOR MOST AND NEAR 50 IN THE NYC METRO. ANY SPOTS THAT ARE ABLE
TO RADIATIONALLY COOL IF WINDS BECOME CALM MAY DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO THE NORTH.
A FEW CLIMATE SITES MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS WITH THE FORECAST
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT LGA AND JFK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
RIDGING RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE
START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER (MONDAY - JUNE 1ST), MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, LOOKING AT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKE TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL (LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S).
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WHILE THERE WILL BE NO FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT FOR RIPS TODAY,
A LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 3 FEET AT 6S WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
COUNTY BEACHES. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT
FOR NYC BEACHES AND THE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW. FOR SUNDAY, THE
COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SW WIND AND AN EASTERLY SWELL OF
3-4 FEET AT 10S FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR ALL AREAS. THE MODERATE RISK CONTINUES ON
MONDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP TO 10 KTS COMBINED WITH
A SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 2-3 FT AT 5S.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FULL
MOON LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND SOME TIDAL PILING ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW. A FEW POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIDAL WATERWAYS
OF NE NJ AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PER BIAS- CORRECTED
BLEND OF ETSS/STOFS/NYHOPS FORECASTS. HOWEVER TRENDS HAVE BEEN
INCHING DOWN, THUS HOLDING OFF ON ANY COASTAL PRODUCTS /
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY ETSS ONLY GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
A FEW MINOR BENCHMARKS BEING MET.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTS ARE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS NE EVENTUALLY BECOMING
MORE NORTHERLY NEAR 10-15 KT. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE GUSTS TOTALLY DIMINISH. WINDS BECOME
MORE NW TO W LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NEAR 5-10 KTS.
SEA BREEZE DEVELOP LIKELY FOR SOME TERMINALS, KJFK AND TO THE
EAST WITH MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING SUNDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE 1-3 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY PM: VFR. GUSTS DIMINISHING.
MONDAY: VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE EARLY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALES REMAIN FOR OUTER OCEAN WATERS FROM MORICHES TO MONTAUK
WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MARINE ZONES HAVE SCA CONDITIONS, MAINLY
FOR WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING. OCEAN SEAS HAVE AN EASTERLY SWELL,
KEEPING THEIR SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING WITH
NON- OCEAN ZONES FALLING BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
SCA CONDITIONS LINGER ON THE OCEAN SEAS FROM RESIDUAL WAVE
HEIGHTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ380.
DISCUSSION...JT/MW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/MW
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