028
FXUS61 KOKX 310603
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
203 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PERSIST ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
2) MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
3) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS, WINDS HAVE DISSIPATED. GIVEN
THE STRONG N FLOW FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY AND STRONG CAA INTO
THE AREA, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST AND NEAR 50 IN THE NYC METRO. ANY
SPOTS THAT ARE ABLE TO RADIATIONALLY COOL IF WINDS BECOME CALM
MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS TO THE
NORTH.
A FEW CLIMATE SITES MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOWS WITH THE FORECAST
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES AT LGA AND JFK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
RIDGING RETURNS FOR SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE
START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER (MONDAY - JUNE 1ST), MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, LOOKING AT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKE TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL (LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S).
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
FOR SUNDAY, THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SW WIND AND AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AT 10S FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR ALL AREAS. THE MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP TO 10 KTS
COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 2-3 FT AT 5S.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FULL
MOON LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND SOME TIDAL PILING ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW. A FEW POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIDAL
WATERWAYS OF NE NJ AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PER BIAS-
CORRECTED BLEND OF ETSS/STOFS/NYHOPS FORECASTS. HOWEVER TRENDS
HAVE BEEN INCHING DOWN, THUS HOLDING OFF ON ANY COASTAL PRODUCTS
/ HEADLINES AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY ETSS ONLY GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A FEW MINOR BENCHMARKS BEING MET.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES EASTERN TERMINALS FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK FOR MOST, IF
NOT ALL TERMINALS. A WNW FLOW SETS UP SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASING
TO 10 TO AROUND 15 KT, HIGHEST FOR KJFK. SEA BREEZES MOVE
THROUGH KJFK, KISP, KBDR, AND KGON. LESS LIKELY AT KLGA, BUT
COULD BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH, THEN PUSH EAST, SO ADDED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
GUSTS TO 20 KT LOOK TO BE MORE OCCASIONAL AT THIS TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS THROUGH 12Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS
EXPECTED, BUT IF THE BECOME MORE FREQUENT, AMENDMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE FOR KGON WITH CHANCE
SHOWERS.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR
POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING AND THEREFORE SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ON NON-OCEAN WATERS. OCEAN SEAS HAVE
AN EASTERLY SWELL, KEEPING THEIR SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SCA
THRESHOLDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS LINGER ON THE OCEAN SEAS FROM RESIDUAL WAVE
HEIGHTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 5
FEET BY EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JT/MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/MW
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