175
FXUS61 KOKX 311140
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
740 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFTS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
RIDGING RETURNS FOR TODAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS. WITH THE
START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER (MONDAY - JUNE 1ST), FORECAST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, LOOKING AT MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKE TO REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL (LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S).
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SW WIND AND AN EASTERLY SWELL OF 3-
4 FEET AT 10S FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE
RISK FOR ALL AREAS. THE MODERATE RISK CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP TO 10 KTS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERLY
SWELL.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS FOR POINTS N AND E OF METRO TERMINALS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD TO TAFS AT THIS TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A WNW FLOW SETS UP THIS MORNING, INCREASING TO 10 TO AROUND 15
KT, HIGHEST FOR KJFK. SEA BREEZES MOVE THROUGH KJFK, KISP, KBDR,
AND KGON. LESS LIKELY AT KLGA, BUT COULD BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH,
THEN PUSH EAST, SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
A LIGHT N TO NNE FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT FOR THE METRO TERMINALS,
WITH OUTLYING TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
GUSTS TO 20 KT LOOK TO BE MORE OCCASIONAL AT THIS TIME DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED, BUT IF THE BECOME MORE FREQUENT,
AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR
POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, OCEAN SEAS HAVE AN EASTERLY SWELL,
KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.
SEAS MAY FALL TO AROUND 4 FT ON THE OCEAN LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER AN INCREASING SW FLOW MAY INCREASE SEAS BACK TO 5
FT FOR PARTS OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
EXTENDED THE SCA ON THE OCEAN THOUGH 00Z MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT SOME 5 FT SEAS COULD LINGER BEYOND 00Z FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL
HOURS BEFORE FINALLY SUBSIDING 5 FT.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ALSO, WITH AIR TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 50S, A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COLD WATER SAFETY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page