444
FXUS61 KOKX 311752
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
152 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS EARLY
THIS WEEK.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
INTO TONIGHT, YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND, BEFORE MOVING THROUGH LOCALLY TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS
MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN YESTERDAY'S HOWEVER, AND LIMITED MOISTURE
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER AHEAD OF THE FROPA LOOK TO BE ACROSS S CT WHERE
FORCING IS BEST, BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE EITHER. ANY
RAIN SHOULD TAPER BY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
WITH THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER ON MONDAY, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY ACROSS S
CT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL IN LOWER TO MID 70S.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SW WIND AND AN EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3- 4 FEET AT 10S FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR ALL AREAS. THE MODERATE RISK CONTINUES ON
MONDAY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW PICKING UP TO 10 KTS COMBINED WITH
A SOUTHERLY SWELL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS WITH FROPA TONIGHT ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR N AND E OF THE NYC METRO, BEST CHANCE AT
KGON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OTHER TAF
SITE AT THIS TIME.
A GENERAL WNW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 15 KT, HIGHEST FOR
KJFK. SEA BREEZES MOVE THROUGH KJFK, KISP, KBDR, AND KGON. LESS
LIKELY AT KLGA, BUT COULD BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH, THEN PUSH EAST,
SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20KT POSSIBLE. A LIGHT N TO NNE FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT FOR THE
METRO TERMINALS, WITH OUTLYING TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. A N FLOW SET UP BY MONDAY MORNING GRADUALLY BECOMING
NE THEN E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS EXPECTED, BUT IF THEY BECOME MORE FREQUENT,
AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR
POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
AN EASTERLY SWELL ON THE OCEAN IS KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 5 FT
MUCH OF TODAY. SEAS MAY FALL TOWARD 4 FT LATE THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER AN INCREASING SW FLOW COULD CREEP THEM
BACK ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH LATE DAY. OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THOUGH 00Z THIS EVENING AND IT'S POSSIBLE
THESE ELEVATED SEAS COULD LINGER BEYOND 00Z FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL
HOURS, BUT WILL REEVALUATE LATER TODAY.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON ALL
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NOTE: GIVEN AIR TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S AND WATER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S, A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED HIGHLIGHTING THE DANGER OF ENTERING THE COLD WATER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
DISCUSSION...BC/DR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BC
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