949
FXUS61 KOKX 311943
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY, LOWERING TO
A LOW RISK FOR TUESDAY.
3) SUMMER HEAT BUILDS MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
INTO TONIGHT, YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND, BEFORE MOVING THROUGH LOCALLY TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM
IS MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN YESTERDAY'S COASTAL LOW, AND LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST FROM SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ACROSS
SE CT WHERE FORCING IS BEST, AND CAN'T RULE OUT A QUICK DOWNPOUR
OR TWO HERE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE, A SPOTTY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.
ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER BY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GIVEN
A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER THEN KICKS OFF ON A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR
S CT, GIVEN A BIT STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE, DRY, COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, OR NEAR CLIMO FOR THE START
OF JUNE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SW WIND AND AN E SWELL
OF 3-4 FEET AT 10S FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR ALL AREAS TODAY. THE MODERATE RISK CONTINUES ON
MONDAY WITH AN E/SE FLOW PICKING UP TO 10-15 KTS COMBINED WITH
A SOUTHERLY SWELL. MONDAY IS CLOSER TO A HIGHER END LOW/LOWER END
MODERATE, BUT RCMOS WAS SHOWING MODERATE FOR ALL BEACHES, SO
CONTINUED TO STICK WITH THAT. THE RISK FINALLY LOWERS TO LOW FOR
TUESDAY WITH A S WIND UNDER 10 KT AND 2-3 FT 5-7S SWELL OUT OF THE E.
KEY MESSAGE 3
BY MIDWEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK,
PROMOTING RISING TEMPERATURES WITH IT.
PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY
ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM MARITIME INFLUENCE,
AND COULD EVEN SET A FEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS AT THE CLIMATE SITES.
THE STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER COULD BE AN EXTENDED ONE, WITH
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND AI-BASED SYSTEMS SIGNALING THAT A SE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. SOME SHOWERS WITH FROPA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR N AND E OF THE NYC METRO, BEST CHANCE
AT KGON. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY OTHER TAF
SITE AT THIS TIME.
A GENERAL WNW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 15 KT, HIGHEST FOR
KJFK. SEA BREEZES MOVE THROUGH KJFK, KISP, KBDR, AND KGON. LESS
LIKELY AT KLGA, BUT COULD BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH, THEN PUSH EAST,
SO ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20KT POSSIBLE. A LIGHT N TO NNE FLOW SETS UP OVERNIGHT FOR THE
METRO TERMINALS, WITH OUTLYING TERMINALS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. A N FLOW SET UP BY MONDAY MORNING GRADUALLY BECOMING
NE THEN E THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE SHOWERS FOR
POINTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CITY TERMINALS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET OUT TO 20 NM UNTIL 00Z THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FT PERSISTING THROUGH THEN.
THEREAFTER, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, AND MAY EXTEND THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD.
NOTE: WITH AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND
WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 50S, A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE DANGER OF ENTERING THE COLD WATER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DR
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