493
FXUS61 KOKX 010031
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
831 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OCEAN EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET OUT 20
NM EXTENDED UNTIL 11PM THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY, LOWERING TO
A LOW RISK FOR TUESDAY.
3) SUMMER HEAT BUILDS MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
INTO TONIGHT, YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND, BEFORE MOVING THROUGH LOCALLY TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM
IS MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN YESTERDAY'S COASTAL LOW, AND LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST FROM SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ACROSS
SE CT WHERE FORCING IS BEST, AND CAN'T RULE OUT A QUICK DOWNPOUR
OR TWO HERE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE, A SPOTTY SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS MUCH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED.
ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER BY DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GIVEN
A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER THEN KICKS OFF ON A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR
S CT, GIVEN A BIT STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE, DRY, COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, OR NEAR CLIMO FOR THE START
OF JUNE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SW WIND AND AN E SWELL
OF 3-4 FEET AT 10S FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR ALL AREAS TODAY. THE MODERATE RISK CONTINUES ON
MONDAY WITH AN E/SE FLOW PICKING UP TO 10-15 KTS COMBINED WITH
A SOUTHERLY SWELL. MONDAY IS CLOSER TO A HIGHER END LOW/LOWER END
MODERATE, BUT RCMOS WAS SHOWING MODERATE FOR ALL BEACHES, SO
CONTINUED TO STICK WITH THAT. THE RISK FINALLY LOWERS TO LOW FOR
TUESDAY WITH A S WIND UNDER 10 KT AND 2-3 FT 5-7S SWELL OUT OF THE E.
KEY MESSAGE 3
BY MIDWEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK,
PROMOTING RISING TEMPERATURES WITH IT.
PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY
ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM MARITIME INFLUENCE,
AND COULD EVEN SET A FEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS AT THE CLIMATE SITES.
THE STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER COULD BE AN EXTENDED ONE, WITH
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND AI-BASED SYSTEMS SIGNALING THAT A SE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS THEREAFTER, BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
EAST LATER ON MONDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WHICH COULD PRESENT BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FOR CT TERMINALS WHERE
TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED.
WIND DIRECTIONS ARE UNCERTAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
DECREASING TO NEAR 10 KTS OR LESS BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE WIND DIRECTION HAS FLUCTUATED FOR SOME
TERMINALS BETWEEN SOUTHERLY AND WESTERLY FLOW. THE DIRECTION COULD
BE QUITE VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS LOWERING TO NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY MONDAY AND GRADUALLY GAIN A MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 10 TO 12 KTS. GUSTS AT
TIMES TO NEAR 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAIN FOR TONIGHT, LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE AT SPEEDS OF 6 TO 10
KTS.
TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE 1-3 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
GUSTS ON MONDAY MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL IN FREQUENCY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS FOR CT TERMINALS. EASTERLY GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. GUSTS DIMINISH THEREAFTER.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. SOME S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED ON OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET OUT TO 20 NM UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
AROUND 5 FT PERSISTING THROUGH THEN. OTHERWISE, BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR REST OF LOCAL MARINE ZONES.
THEREAFTER, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, AND MAY EXTEND THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD.
NOTE: WITH AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AND
WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 50S, A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE DANGER OF ENTERING THE COLD WATER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/DR
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