929
FXUS61 KOKX 010335
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1135 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED POPS FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AT TIMES.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY, LOWERING TO
A LOW RISK FOR TUESDAY.
3) SUMMER HEAT BUILDS MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FOR TONIGHT, YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS DOWN ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, BEFORE MOVING THROUGH LOCALLY
TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS MUCH LESS VIGOROUS THAN SATURDAY'S
COASTAL LOW, AND LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST FROM
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ACROSS SE CT WHERE FORCING IS BEST, AND CAN'T
RULE OUT A QUICK DOWNPOUR OR TWO HERE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY.
ELSEWHERE, A SPOTTY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS MUCH
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER BY
DAYBREAK OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. GIVEN A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD,
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER THEN KICKS OFF ON A RELATIVELY TRANQUIL NOTE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM CANADA. A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR
S CT, GIVEN A BIT STEEPER LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD.
OTHERWISE, DRY, COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, OR NEAR CLIMO FOR THE START
OF JUNE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ON MONDAY WITH AN E/SE
FLOW PICKING UP TO 10-15 KTS COMBINED WITH A SOUTHERLY SWELL.
MONDAY IS CLOSER TO A HIGHER END LOW/LOWER END MODERATE, BUT
RCMOS WAS SHOWING MODERATE FOR ALL BEACHES, SO CONTINUED TO
STICK WITH THAT. THE RISK FINALLY LOWERS TO LOW FOR TUESDAY WITH
A S WIND UNDER 10 KT AND 2-3 FT 5-7S SWELL OUT OF THE E.
KEY MESSAGE 3
BY MIDWEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS FROM HUDSON BAY DOWN INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK,
PROMOTING RISING TEMPERATURES WITH IT.
PARTS OF THE AREA LOOK TO GET BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S ON WEDNESDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD THURSDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY
ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 90 AWAY FROM MARITIME INFLUENCE,
AND COULD EVEN SET A FEW DAILY RECORD HIGHS AT THE CLIMATE SITES.
THE STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER COULD BE AN EXTENDED ONE, WITH
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND AI-BASED SYSTEMS SIGNALING THAT A SE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS
THEREAFTER, BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST LATER
ON MONDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH EXCEPTION OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY INTO OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD PRESENT BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS ARE FOR CT TERMINALS,
KSWF, AND KISP WHERE TEMPO GROUPS HAVE BEEN PLACED.
WIND DIRECTIONS ARE UNCERTAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE
NEAR 10 KTS OR LESS. THE WIND DIRECTION COULD BE QUITE VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS FURTHER
LOWERING TO NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY EARLY MONDAY AND GRADUALLY GAIN A MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TO NEAR 10 TO 12 KTS. GUSTS AT
TIMES TO NEAR 20 KT CAN BE EXPECTED.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WIND DIRECTION UNCERTAIN FOR TONIGHT, LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
WIND DIRECTION COULD BECOME QUITE VARIABLE AT SPEEDS OF 6 TO 10
KTS.
TIMING OF GUSTS COULD BE 1-3 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
GUSTS ON MONDAY MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL IN FREQUENCY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS FOR CT TERMINALS. EASTERLY GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. GUSTS DIMINISH THEREAFTER.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. SOME S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OVERALL, BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LOCAL MARINE
ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THEREAFTER, SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK, AND MAY EXTEND THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE FIELD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/DR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM/DR
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